The group stage reaches its last round in Groups J, K and L, with both games in each group kicking off at the same time.

Here is what each side needs before kick-off.

Group J

Algeria v Austria and Jordan v Argentina.

Argentina have won the group and will face an advancing third-placed team.

Austria sit second and need only a draw in their final game to go through.

Algeria and Jordan must both win and hope other results fall their way.

Group K

Colombia v Portugal and D.R. Congo v Uzbekistan.

Colombia have won the group and will face an advancing third-placed team.

Portugal sit second and need only a draw in their final game to go through.

D.R. Congo and Uzbekistan must both win and hope other results fall their way.

Group L

Croatia v Ghana and Panama v England.

England and Ghana lead the group on four points, and each goes through with a draw in their final game.

Croatia sit third and must win their final game to be sure of going through.

Panama have been eliminated after losing their opening two games.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The permutations above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

The final round of group games continues, now in Groups G, H and I, with both games in each group kicking off at the same time.

First, how Groups D, E and F finished.

First, the key observations from Day 15

Day 15 Keynotes

USA won Group D. Germany won Group E ahead of Ivory Coast, and the Netherlands won Group F ahead of Japan. However, Sweden’s draw with Japan was also enough to see them progress in third.

The current third-place places

Eight of the twelve third-placed teams reach the last 32. As it stands:

Sweden have qualified, on four points

Bosnia and Herzegovina have qualified on four points

Ecuador have also qualified with four points.

At the time of writing, Croatia and South Korea are next in line, both on three points with a goal difference of -1.

Algeria and Paraguay sit on three points with -2 with a game to play, while Scotland, for now, hold the last spot on three points with -3.

These places will shift as Groups G to L play their final games.

Group G

Belgium v New Zealand and Iran v Egypt.

Egypt have won the group and will face an advancing third-placed team.

Iran sit second and need only a draw in their final game to go through.

Belgium and New Zealand must both win and hope other results fall their way.

Group H

Spain v Uruguay and Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia.

Spain have won the group and will face an advancing third-placed team.

Uruguay sit second and need only a draw in their final game to go through.

Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia must both win and hope other results fall their way.

Group I

France v Norway and Senegal v Iraq.

France have won the group and will face an advancing third-placed team.

Norway sit second and need only a draw in their final game to go through.

Senegal and Iraq must both win and hope other results fall their way.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The permutations above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

The final round of group games continues, now in Groups D, E and F, with both games in each group kicking off at the same time.

First, how Groups A, B and C finished on Day 14.

First, the key observations from Day 14

Day 14 Keynotes

Mexico won Group A, with South Africa taking second. South Korea, who had needed only a draw, finished third.

Switzerland won Group B ahead of Canada, with Bosnia dropping into the third-place places.

Brazil won Group C ahead of Morocco, with Scotland left to rely on a third-place finish.

Eight of the twelve third-placed teams reach the last 32. The sides currently holding a qualifying place are Bosnia, South Korea, Algeria, Paraguay, Scotland and Cape Verde.

Group D

USA v Türkiye and Australia v Paraguay.

USA have won the group and will face an advancing third-placed team.

Australia sit second and need only a draw in their final game to go through.

Paraguay and Türkiye must both win and hope other results fall their way.

The Group D runner-up meets the Group G runner-up in the last 32.

Group E

Curaçao v Ivory Coast and Ecuador v Germany.

Germany have won the group and will face a third-placed team.

Ivory Coast sit second and need only a draw in their final game to go through.

Ecuador and Curaçao must both win and hope other results fall their way.

The Group E runner-up meets the Group H winner.

Group F

Netherlands v Tunisia and Sweden v Japan.

Netherlands have won the group and will face a third-placed team.

Japan sit second and need only a draw in their final game to go through.

Sweden and Tunisia must both win and hope other results fall their way.

The Group F runner-up meets the Group C winner, Brazil.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The permutations above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

The group stage reaches its final round in Groups A, B and C, with both games in each group kicking off at the same time.

Mexico are already through as group winners. Every other place across the three groups is still open.

Here is what each side needs before kick-off.

Group A

Czechia v Mexico and South Africa v South Korea.

Mexico have won the group and will face one of the third-placed sides in the last 32.

South Korea sit second and need only a draw in their final game to go through.

South Africa and Czechia must both win and hope other results fall their way.

The Group A runner-up meets the Group B runner-up in the last 32.

Group B

Bosnia v Qatar and Switzerland v Canada.

Canada and Switzerland lead the group on four points. A draw between them sends both through, and the winner takes top spot.

Bosnia and Qatar sit on one point. Both realistically need to win and hope the Switzerland v Canada game produces a winner.

The Group B winner plays an advancing third-placed side, and the runner-up meets the Group A runner-up.

Group C

Morocco v Haiti and Scotland v Brazil.

Brazil, Morocco, Haiti and Scotland all go into the final games with something to play for.

Scotland’s place comes down to their final game against Brazil.

The Group C winner is set to face the Group F runner-up in the last 32.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The permutations above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

Day 13 brings England against Ghana, with England scoring at least twice in each of their last six games.

Three more games follow: Portugal v Uzbekistan, Panama v Croatia and Colombia v D.R. Congo.

First, the key observations from Day 10

Day 12 Keynotes

Lionel Messi missed a penalty but scored twice, and leads the scoring chart on five goals.

Kylian Mbappé scored his 14th and 15th World Cup goals.

Erling Haaland has now scored twice in each of his two World Cup matches.

Algeria came from behind to beat Jordan 2-1.

England v Ghana

England have scored at least twice in each of their last six games.

Ghana have won their last four games.

Portugal v Uzbekistan

Cristiano Ronaldo has gone ten games at European Championships and World Cups without a goal.

Panama v Croatia

There have been four or more goals in each of Croatia’s last three games.

Panama are unbeaten in nine of their last ten games.

Croatia’s defeat to England was their first in nine games.

Colombia v D.R. Congo

Colombia have scored three or more goals in each of their last three games.

Both teams have scored in five of Colombia’s last seven games.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

Day 12 brings Argentina against Austria, with Argentina winning six of their last eight games and Austria seven of their last nine.

Three more games follow: France v Iraq, Norway v Senegal and Jordan v Algeria.

First, the key observations from Day 11

Day 11 Keynotes

Spain won 4-0 and are now unbeaten in 32 matches, with 23 wins and nine draws across that run.

Egypt won a World Cup match for the first time, at the ninth attempt.

Cape Verde stayed undefeated, holding Uruguay to a draw.

Belgium failed to score again, held to a 0-0 by Iran despite 23 shots.

Argentina v Austria

Argentina have won six of their last eight games.

Austria have won seven of their last nine games.

France v Iraq

Kylian Mbappé has had four or more shots in each of his last ten games.

Mbappé has scored seven in his last seven games.

France have scored two or more goals in 13 of their last 14 games.

Norway v Senegal

Erling Haaland has scored ten in his last ten games.

Norway have scored four or more goals in each of their last five games.

Jordan v Algeria

Jordan have won three of their last five games without conceding.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

Day 11 brings Spain against Saudi Arabia, with Spain still without a goal across their last 2,500 passes and 49 shots at the World Cup.

Three more games follow across Groups G and H: Belgium v Iran, Uruguay v Cape Verde and New Zealand v Egypt.

First, the key observations from Day 10

Day 10 Keynotes

Germany sealed top spot in their group with a late winner.

A draw that felt like a win for Curaçao, who stood firm to hold Ecuador to 0-0, with goalkeeper Eloy Room making 15 saves.

Netherlands extended their unbeaten run at the men’s World Cup to 14 matches, going back to the 2010 final defeat to Spain, with nine wins and five draws across that run.

Deniz Undav, the 101.0 outright we flagged for the Golden Boot before the tournament, scored again to reach three goals and now sits joint top of the scoring.

Spain v Saudi Arabia

Spain have made 2,500 passes and taken 49 shots since they last scored at the World Cup.

Saudi Arabia goalkeeper Al-Owais made nine saves against Uruguay.

Belgium v Iran

Belgium have failed to score with their last 46 shots at the World Cup, from an xG of 5.66.

Iran have won once against European opposition at the World Cup, against Wales, with two draws and seven defeats in their other meetings.

Uruguay v Cape Verde

Both Uruguay and Cape Verde were held to draws in their opening matches.

Uruguay have lost one of their last nine World Cup group games.

Cape Verde’s 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinhas made seven saves against Spain.

New Zealand v Egypt

New Zealand and Egypt are both still looking for a first World Cup win.

In their opening match New Zealand posted their best World Cup figures for touches in the opposition box (21), possession (51.5%) and completed passes (376), and led a game twice for the first time.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

Day 10 brings Germany against Ivory Coast, with Germany on a run of six straight competitive wins.

Three more group games follow: Netherlands v Sweden, Ecuador v Curaçao and Tunisia v Japan.

First, the key observations from Day 9

Day 9 Keynotes

The USA have won their group, joining Mexico as the first two sides confirmed in the last 32.

Scotland conceded the fastest goal of the tournament so far, only for Türkiye to concede faster still, after 60 seconds, later the same day, exiting the tournament.

Brazil won comfortably against Haiti.

Netherlands v Sweden

Denzel Dumfries has scored or assisted in six of his last eight competitive internationals.

Sweden have scored three or more goals in each of their last three matches.

Germany v Ivory Coast

Germany have won their last six competitive games, and Ivory Coast six of their last eight.

Deniz Undav has scored or assisted in three of his last four competitive Germany appearances.

Florian Wirtz has had three or more shots in four of his last six games for Germany.

Ecuador v Curaçao

A late defeat to Ivory Coast ended Ecuador’s 18-match unbeaten run.

Tunisia v Japan

Tunisia sacked their manager after a 5-1 opening defeat to Sweden.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

World Cup Betting Made Easy

Yesterday I watched an AI analysis tool do something I had not seen all tournament. It did not flag one mispriced bet. It flagged an entire fixture the bookmakers had got wrong.

When value is that clear and that available, there is only one sensible response. You take advantage of all of it.

The fixture was England v Croatia. Gecko Edge surfaced the goal markets as mispriced right across the range: First Half Over 1.5, both teams to score, and Over 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5. An average +EV of 11.9%, every position pulling in the same direction.

Here is the part worth picturing. You are not sweating a single result. You are holding a structured, data-led position stacked across the goals, and as each one goes in, the next bet in the chain settles with it. The profit does not arrive in one hit. It flows, like a waterfall. That one fixture returned 16.59 points, and it made for an enjoyable way to watch a football match.

Stacking works here for one reason. When a single match is mispriced across multiple goal lines, those positions are correlated by design. The same expected-goals picture that lifts First Half Over 1.5 also lifts Over 2.5 and Over 3.5, and the deeper lines carry the longer odds. One accurate view of the game pays out in several places at once. Get the fixture right and you are not paid once, you are paid over and over.

This is exactly what Gecko Edge is built to do. It is not a tipster handing you a “tip”. It is a complex mathematical model showing you exactly where value sits, why and, crucially, how to take advantage of it.

It models probabilities against the bookmaker-implied price, the +EV on each market, and the expected-goals workings underneath. You see the full analysis and data, then you decide how to play it.

England v Croatia was one fixture on one day. The point is not the 16.59 points. The point is the process that found them, and the fact you can run that same process on every match for the rest of the tournament.

What Gecko Edge Does For Your World Cup Betting

It surfaces the value across a fixture, shows you the reasoning behind every position, and leaves the decision with you. No guesswork, no chasing, no following blind. Just a clear view of where the bookmakers have got the markets wrong, and the structure to take advantage when they have.

And right now, you can get a full year's access with a lifetime 35% discount.

Simply enter the coupon code ENGCRO at the checkout.

Discover Today's +EV Markets - Save 35%

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

Day 9 brings Brazil against Haiti, after Brazil conceded more shots than they took in their opening draw.

Three more group games complete the day: USA v Australia, Scotland v Morocco and Türkiye v Paraguay.

First, the key observations from Day 8

Day 8 Keynotes

Czechia have scored first in both their games but are yet to win.

Switzerland have scored five goals in the final 20 minutes across the tournament, several through substitutes.

Mexico have not conceded a first-half goal in 13 World Cup matches.

Jonathan David scored a hat-trick as Qatar collapsed, finishing with two players sent off.

USA v Australia

Both sides won their opening games.

Australia have won three of their last four World Cup games, after winning just two of the previous seventeen.

The USA set a strong first-half tempo in beating Paraguay.

Scotland v Morocco

Morocco drew 1-1 with Brazil in their opening game.

Morocco have lost just once in their last six World Cup games against European opposition, two wins and three draws.

Brazil v Haiti

Brazil conceded more shots than they took in their opening game, 14 to 12.

Türkiye v Paraguay

Türkiye dominated possession against Australia but lost 2-0.

Türkiye have lost nine of their last 13 tournament matches.

Paraguay lost their opening game to the USA and are without a World Cup win in four matches.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

Day 8 brings the hosts back into action, Mexico against South Korea, with Mexico on a four-match winning run.

Three more second-round group games follow: Czechia v South Africa, Switzerland v Bosnia and Canada v Qatar.

First, the key observations from Day 7

Day 7 Keynotes

Cristiano Ronaldo has now gone ten consecutive games without scoring at a major tournament for Portugal, across the World Cup and the Euros.

Harry Kane scored twice and became just the second England player to score at three separate World Cups.

It was England’s first World Cup win over a side ranked in FIFA’s top 15, Croatia 11th, since beating Argentina in 2002, ending a nine-game winless run against such sides at the finals, two draws and seven defeats.

Colombia are unbeaten in their last four World Cup matches, three wins and a draw, and have lost just two of their last ten.

Panama remain without a point in a World Cup group stage, four defeats, after a late Ghana winner.

Czechia v South Africa

Both sides lost their opening games.

Sithole and Zwane are both suspended after being sent off in the opener.

Krejčí has scored in each of his last three games.

Each of Czechia’s last five competitive games has produced more than 2.5 goals.

Switzerland v Bosnia

Both sides drew their opening games.

Both Edin Džeko and Tabaković are carrying knocks for Bosnia.

Katić has been booked in three of his last four games.

Both teams have scored in each of Bosnia’s last seven competitive games, and Bosnia have drawn the last four.

Canada v Qatar

Qatar were dominated by Switzerland in their opening game before scoring a late equaliser.

Mexico v South Korea

Mexico have scored more than 1.5 goals in eight of their last ten games, and South Korea in five of their last six.

Mexico are on a four-match competitive winning run, with clean sheets in three of those.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

Day 7 brings England against Croatia, with England on a run of ten consecutive clean sheets in competitive matches.

Portugal also begin, against D.R. Congo, on a four-fixture day that includes Ghana v Panama and Uzbekistan v Colombia

First, the key observations from Day 6

Day 6 Keynotes

Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland scored twice each on Day 6, and Lionel Messi recorded his first World Cup hat-trick.

Mbappé became France’s record scorer, reaching 58 goals.

Haaland’s two first-half goals gave Norway a half-time lead at a World Cup for the first time.

Algeria failed to register a single shot on target against Argentina.

Portugal v D.R. Congo

Cristiano Ronaldo has had more than 3.5 shots in each of his last five appearances.

Five of Portugal’s last seven competitive internationals have produced more than 3.5 goals.

England v Croatia

Harry Kane has scored in seven of his last nine competitive internationals.

England have kept a clean sheet in each of their last ten competitive internationals.

Croatia have won seven of their last eight competitive games and have scored three or more in each of their last three.

Ghana v Panama

Ghana have won five of their last six competitive internationals, with clean sheets in the last three.

Thomas Partey is unavailable after being denied a Canadian visa.

Uzbekistan v Colombia

Luis Díaz has scored or assisted in each of his last five games.

Uzbekistan have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five matches.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

Day 6 brings a rematch of the 2002 World Cup opener: France against Senegal, a game Senegal won 1-0.

World champions Argentina also begin, against Algeria, on a four-fixture day that includes Iraq v Norway and Austria v Jordan.

First, the key observations from Day 5

Day 4 Keynotes

Day 5 produced four draws, including Spain’s 0-0 with Cape Verde.

Mikel Oyarzabal became the first player since 1966 to go the opening 30 minutes of a World Cup match without a single touch.

South American sides are winless in their four games so far, two draws and two defeats, and have not yet led in any of them.

Egypt’s wait for a World Cup win extends to eight matches.

France v Senegal

A rematch of the 2002 World Cup opener, when Senegal beat the then world champions France 1-0.

France have won four of their last five matches, the exception a 2-1 defeat to Ivory Coast.

Kylian Mbappé has had more than 3.5 shots in each of his last nine matches.

Iraq v Norway

Norway have scored four or more in each of their last four competitive internationals.

Erling Haaland has scored 10 goals in his last 10 competitive internationals.

Iraq lost their last match 2-0 to Venezuela, having drawn 1-1 with Spain and beaten Andorra 1-0 before that.

Argentina v Algeria

Ramy Bensebaïni is expected to miss out, a notable absence for Algeria.

Algeria lost just once in qualifying, conceding only eight goals in ten games.

When the two nations last met, in 2007, Algeria led 2-1 at half-time before losing 4-3.

Thiago Almada has scored or assisted in each of his last six competitive internationals.

Austria v Jordan

Austria have won six of their last eight competitive matches.

Jordan have won five of their last six competitive matches.

Jordan have kept clean sheets in three of their last four matches.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

Day 5 brings Spain, unbeaten in 31 competitive matches and aiming to become the fourth side to hold the World and European titles at once, against Cape Verde.

Four fixtures make up the day, alongside Belgium v Egypt, Saudi Arabia v Uruguay and Iran v New Zealand.

First, the key observations from Day 4

Day 4 Keynotes

The Netherlands drew 2-2 with Japan, the first World Cup match to be goalless at half-time and finish as a draw with both sides scoring twice since Germany 2-2 Ghana in 2014.

Kai Havertz has scored in five of his last six starts across all competitions, six goals in total, three for Arsenal and three for Germany.

Amad Diallo’s strike for Ivory Coast against Ecuador (89:32) was the latest winning goal by a substitute in a 1-0 World Cup match since Francesco Totti’s 94th-minute penalty for Italy against Australia in 2006.

Spain v Cape Verde

Spain are aiming to become the fourth side to hold the World and European titles at the same time. They were also the last to do it, across 2008, 2010 and 2012.

Spain are unbeaten in their last 31 competitive matches, winning 25, since a 2-0 defeat to Scotland in March 2023.

Spain have won only one of their last six World Cup matches inside 90 minutes.

Belgium v Egypt

Belgium are unbeaten in their last 13 matches.

Belgium have scored in the first half of their last six games, taking the lead in three of them.

Egypt have won four, drawn one and lost three of their recent matches, most recently a 2-1 defeat to Brazil.

Egypt beat Belgium 2-1 in a 2022 friendly.

Saudi Arabia v Uruguay

Uruguay have kept clean sheets in their last three games.

Away from home, Uruguay’s last six games have all finished with fewer than three goals.

Saudi Arabia drew 0-0 in their most recent match.

Iran v New Zealand

Iran have won their three warm-up matches, scoring ten and conceding one.

New Zealand lost 1-0 to England and 4-0 to Haiti in recent matches.

New Zealand have scored just once in their last five internationals.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

Day 4 brings a 39-year age gap between managers, a World Cup record, as Julian Nagelsmann’s Germany face Dick Advocaat’s Curaçao.

Four fixtures make up the day, alongside Sweden v Tunisia, Ivory Coast v Ecuador and Netherlands v Japan.

First, the numbers from Day 3.

Day 3 in numbers

Morocco out-performed Brazil on xG, 1.52 to 1.23, in a 1-1 draw.

Two saves from Alisson kept Brazil unbeaten in their World Cup opening matches since 1934.

Morocco are unbeaten in their last five World Cup group-stage matches, two wins and three draws.

Switzerland’s 26 shots were their most in a World Cup match on record. It was the most by a side that failed to win since Germany’s 2-1 defeat to Japan in 2022.

Scotland recorded their fifth World Cup win, and first since beating Sweden 2-1 in 1990.

Sweden v Tunisia

Sweden have lost just two of their 12 World Cup openers, with five wins and five draws, and are unbeaten in their last four, one win and three draws.

This is Sweden’s 13th World Cup and their first since 2018, when they reached the quarter-finals.

Sweden have progressed beyond the group stage at each of their last four World Cups.

In qualifying this time, Sweden finished bottom of their group, behind Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovenia, and reached the play-off path only through their UEFA Nations League ranking of 34.

Tunisia are at their seventh World Cup, and third in a row, having topped their qualifying group with nine wins and one draw.

Tunisia have won only three of their 18 World Cup matches, a 16.7% win rate.

Ivory Coast v Ecuador

Ecuador lost just twice in 18 qualifiers and conceded only five goals.

Ivory Coast won eight of their ten qualifiers without conceding a goal, and were the top scorers in CAF qualifying with 25.

This is Ivory Coast’s first appearance since 2014, and only their fourth overall.

Enner Valencia has scored six of Ecuador’s last seven World Cup goals.

Netherlands v Japan

The Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 16 World Cup group matches, twelve wins and four draws.

The Netherlands last lost an opening match in 1938.

They have the third-best World Cup win rate at 54.5%, behind Brazil (66.7%) and Germany (60.7%).

Japan have won their opening match at each of the last two World Cups, beating both Germany and Spain in 2022.

Germany v Curaçao

This is Germany’s 21st World Cup appearance. Only Brazil, with 23, have more.

Germany, four-time champions, have lost their opening match at each of the last two World Cups, and have not kept a clean sheet since the 2014 final.

There is a 39-year, 299-day age gap between the managers: Julian Nagelsmann (38y 326d) faces the oldest manager in World Cup history, Dick Advocaat (78y 260d).

Curaçao scored the most goals (28) and recorded the top xG (22.9) in CONCACAF qualifying.

Junior Bacuna created the most chances from open play (20) and won the most free-kicks (25) in qualifying.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

World Cup 2026, Day 2: USA v Paraguay, Canada v Bosnia

Day 3 brings the only group-stage match between two top-ten ranked sides: Brazil against Morocco.

It is one of four fixtures, alongside Haiti v Scotland, Australia v Türkiye and Qatar v Switzerland.

First, the key learnings from Day 2.

Day 3 brings the only group-stage match between two top-ten ranked sides: Brazil against Morocco.

It is one of four fixtures, alongside Haiti v Scotland, Australia v Türkiye and Qatar v Switzerland.

First, the numbers from Day 2.

Day 2 in numbers

Bosnia took a first-half lead against Canada with another headed goal, continuing the tournament’s early aerial trend.

Canada substitute Cyle Larin equalised 121 seconds after coming on, securing a 1-1 draw.

The USA beat Paraguay 4-1, their record World Cup win.

Folarin Balogun’s two goals make him the early leader in the golden boot race.

Haiti v Scotland

Scotland last won their opening match in 1982, 5-2 against New Zealand.

Haiti’s only previous appearance was in 1974, when they conceded 14 goals.

Duckens Nazon was CONCACAF’s leading scorer in qualifying with six goals. Sunderland striker Isidor switched his allegiance from France and has scored twice in four for Haiti.

Haiti topped their qualifying group but still conceded the third-most goals of any team, 13, and the third-most xGA at 11.7.

Scotland are winless in their last nine World Cup matches.

Scott McTominay has scored 13 goals in competitive matches since 2023.

Australia v Türkiye

Türkiye have won all four of their matches against AFC nations.

Australia have lost more matches than any other nation across the last five World Cups, 10 of 17.

They have also lost their opening game at five of their six World Cups.

This is only Türkiye’s second World Cup appearance in 24 years, despite regular European qualification. On their last appearance, in 2002, they reached the semi-finals.

In 2022, Australia reached the last 16 and won two games at a World Cup for the first time.

Qatar v Switzerland

Qatar are making their second World Cup appearance, after hosting in 2022.

They lost all three group games as hosts, scoring once.

Among the AFC qualifiers, Qatar lost the most games, five of 10.

Switzerland, along with France, are the only European side to reach the knockout stage at each of the last six international tournaments.

Switzerland are unbeaten in their last six World Cup openers.

They have topped their group only once, in 2006.

Brazil v Morocco

This is the only group-stage match between two top-ten ranked sides, Brazil sixth and Morocco eighth.

Brazil’s wait for a title is their longest, last winning in 2002 despite being five-time winners.

Raphinha had the most shots on target without scoring at the 2022 World Cup, with six.

Brazil finished fifth in South American qualifying, with only Paraguay behind them, their worst qualifying campaign since the format began 30 years ago.

They have topped their group at every tournament since 1982.

Morocco finished fourth in 2022 and won the 2025 AFCON.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

World Cup 2026, Day 2: USA v Paraguay, Canada v Bosnia

Day 1 delivered three sendings-off in the opener, the most in a World Cup match since 2006.

Day 2 is two group-stage fixtures: USA against Paraguay, then Canada against Bosnia.

First, the numbers from Day 1.

Day 1 in numbers

Three players were sent off in the opener, the most in a single World Cup match since 2006. One more would match the total from the entire 2022 tournament. The record is four in one match, set by Portugal against the Netherlands in 2006.

Raúl Jiménez headed the tournament’s first goal in the opener, and Czechia added another, in line with the pre-tournament expectation of more headed goals.

South Africa managed an xG of just 0.07, dominated by Mexico.

Gilberto Mora became the sixth-youngest player to appear at a World Cup, at 17 years and 240 days.

USA v Paraguay

Paraguay took the final qualifying place in the South American group.

Among the sides that progressed, they had the smallest goal difference, +4, and the lowest possession, 37.3%.

Set-pieces produced 36% of their goals.

Paraguay have won just one of their eight World Cup openers, with four draws and three defeats.

The USA have one of the lowest win rates of any nation with 30 or more World Cup matches, at 24%.

Canada v Bosnia

Canada have lost all six of their previous World Cup matches, scoring two and conceding twelve.

The fixture is in Toronto, where Canada have eighteen wins and nine draws from their last 28 matches.

Bosnia reached the tournament by beating Wales and Italy in the play-offs, and lost only once in their qualifying group, 1-2 to Austria.

Edin Džeko scored six goals in qualifying, their leading scorer.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

On the opening day we landed a 10.87% EV bet on South Korea. The latest recommendations are available to Daily World Cup Brief members. These include:

• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking

• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> It’s Not Too Late - Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

World Cup 2026 opens today at the Estadio Azteca, where Mexico have never lost a World Cup match.

Day 1 is two fixtures: Mexico against South Africa, then South Korea against Czechia.

Here are the pre-match trends that matter before kick-off.

Mexico v South Africa

Mexico have never lost a World Cup match at the Estadio Azteca: five wins, two draws.

They are unbeaten in their last seven World Cup opening matches, again five wins and two draws.

South Africa have played nine World Cup matches. None has finished goalless.

The two sides have met at this stage before. Mexico were South Africa’s opponents for the opening match of the 2010 World Cup, which finished 1-1, the most recent World Cup opener to end level.

Mexico’s goals have skewed towards the second half.

South Korea v Czechia

South Korea were unbeaten in qualifying: eleven wins, five draws.

Their last two World Cup matches against European opposition both ended in wins, 2-0 against Germany and 2-1 against Portugal.

Against that, South Korea’s all-time World Cup win rate is 18.4%, the lowest of any nation with 30 or more matches at the tournament.

Czechia’s qualifying output was concentrated at set-pieces. They scored eleven set-piece goals, seven from corners, more than any other UEFA side, and the second-most headed goals of any UEFA side with seven, one behind Norway.

Defensively, Czechia have conceded six second-half goals in their last ten matches. A booking rate of around 1.86 per game points to a more stop-start second half.

Inside today’s Daily Brief

The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:

• Two in-play goal positions, one for each match, with entry prices and points staking

• A pre-match value bet our model rates ahead of the market on the result

• The in-play triggers for each position

• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one

>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief

Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.

Tom, xGenius

Picking the winner of the World Cup is harder than it looks. The favourite for the trophy loses around four times in five on the bookmaker-implied probability. Eight nations have shared every World Cup trophy across 22 tournaments, and the bookmakers spread that probability across 48 teams in the modern field.

You can back one team and hope. Or you can structure the position so the variance moves in your favour. Three approaches do that work, each with a different risk profile and a different set of trade-offs.

Below: a dutch across the tournament favourites, single or each-way bets on the second tier, and Back-to-Lay positions on the dark horses. What each approach is, and the pros and cons of each.

Scenario 1 - Dutch the tournament favourites

A dutch is a position spread across multiple selections in the same market, sized so any winning outcome returns the same notional payout. Applied to the World Cup outright, dutching the top of the board (the five tournament favourites priced roughly 5.50 to 9.00) covers around 70% of the bookmaker-implied probability in a single position. Any of the five favourites winning the trophy returns a profit on the dutch; only an outsider winning produces a loss.

The dutch can run two to five names depending on how much of the tier the bettor wants to cover. Two names is a partial dutch with higher upside but a lower strike rate. Five names is the full favourite-tier dutch with the highest strike rate but the smallest profit margin per winner.

Pros:

- Variance drops sharply: a five-name dutch raises the strike rate from the implied 18% on the favourite to 70% across the tier.

- Captures the historical eight-winner concentration in one position.

- Mechanically simple: pick the names, choose a target return, the stake distribution falls out of the maths.

- Available at every UK bookmaker (no exchange account required).

Cons:

- Profit margin per winner is smaller than a single bet on a winner: ROI on a winner typically lands in the 20-50% range depending on tier coverage.

- Bookmaker overround caps the breadth: a dutch wide enough to include all 14 names across all three tiers pushes past 100% implied and becomes a guaranteed loss.

- No exposure to the dark-horse outcome: a Senegal or Morocco run delivers nothing.

- A 30% loss rate is a real number across a six-week tournament window.

Scenario 1 suits the bettor who wants the variance reduction and is willing to accept a smaller profit per win in exchange.

Scenario 2 - Single or each-way bets on the second tier

The second approach skips the favourite tier and takes selective single-bet positions on the second-tier sides, the next layer of the outright board priced roughly 13.00 to 34.00. Two or three positions are taken as straight outright wins, or as each-way bets where the bookmaker offers a place market.

Each-way at a World Cup is offered by most UK bookmakers at four to six places, paying a fraction of the trophy odds (typically a quarter or a fifth) for a finishing position inside the top four or top six. The mechanics differ from horse-racing each-way: at a tournament, the place market settles on the team’s eventual finishing round (semi-final, final, third-place play-off result). Read the each-way terms carefully before staking.

Pros:

- Larger upside per winner: a 13.00 winner returns 13x your stake; a 21.00 winner returns 21x.

- Each-way structure adds a payout layer for a deep-but-not-trophy run.

- Lets the bettor express a specific view on which second-tier side is undervalued.

- Capital outlay per position is small.

Cons:

- Strike rate drops sharply: each individual second-tier side wins at 5-10% on bookmaker implied.

- Covering two or three names leaves 70%+ of the probability space uncovered.

- Each-way terms vary considerably across bookmakers: shop the place markets before staking.

- A favourite winning the trophy produces a complete loss across the position.

Scenario 2 suits the bettor with a strong directional view on a specific second-tier side and the willingness to accept a higher loss-to-win ratio for the larger payouts.

Scenario 3 - Back-to-Lay on the dark horses

The third approach takes positions on the dark-horse tier, sides priced from around 50.00 upwards on the outright board. Each pre-tournament back is paired with a lay bet placed on a betting exchange (Betfair or similar) once the team has progressed through the early rounds.

The lay stake is sized to recover the original back stake on the team’s elimination, leaving the position as a free bet on the trophy run from the lay event onward. The back stake is small, the lay event is taken when the price has shortened (typically once the team reaches the quarter-finals), and the resulting position costs nothing to hold from that point.

Pros:

- Capped downside once the lay is taken: position resolves at zero or above.

- Massive upside on a trophy run: payouts in the four-figure range from a small back stake.

- Forces the bettor to think about the tournament path (group draw, bracket position), not just the final.

- One to three dark-horse positions can run simultaneously without much capital tied up.

Cons:

- Most dark-horse picks lose pre-tournament value before reaching the lay window: a group-stage exit or Round of 32 exit kills the position before the lay event opens.

- Requires an exchange account and some lay-betting comfort.

- The lay price at quarter-final stage is uncertain: a side reaching the quarter-finals through a soft bracket might still trade at 30-50.00 on the lay side, which compresses the free-bet upside.

- Exchange liquidity on outright markets is thinner than on traditional bookmaker markets, especially for longer-priced selections.

Scenario 3 suits the bettor with a directional view on a specific dark horse and the patience to manage the lay event in real-time during the tournament.

Combining the three

Each approach can be taken in isolation, or the three can be combined into a layered outright position. A favourite-tier dutch as the spine, two or three single or each-way bets on the second tier, and one to three Back-to-Lay positions on the dark horses covers the most likely outcomes (the eight-winner concentration), the second-tier upside (sides priced for a deep run but not the trophy), and the dark-horse upside (a deep run that nobody priced in pre-tournament).

The combined position trades some Tier 1 profit margin for broader coverage. The bettor accepts a smaller return on a Tier 1 win in exchange for additional exposure to the Tier 2 and Tier 3 outcomes. Whether that trade-off is worth it depends on the bettor’s read on where the value sits across the bookmaker’s outright board and how strong the directional case for the second-tier and dark-horse sides looks pre-tournament.

What’s covered in the full World Cup Briefing

Our World Cup Betting Guide covers each of the three approaches above with specific recommendations from the 2026 outright markets, worked stake distributions, and the continental-bias overlay for re-weighting the favourite-tier. The Back-to-Lay section walks the maths step-by-step including the lay-event timing decision and the free-bet payout calculation.

Inside:

· Named selections for each tier with worked +EV calculations

· The continental-bias overlay (7-in-8 South American at American tournaments)

· The Back-to-Lay timing decision and free-bet payout maths

· The bracket-path each-way value chapter that builds on this framework once the draw is locked

The World Cup Briefing is built specifically for the 2026 tournament.

World Cup Betting Guide

Imagine you’re playing for the home nation. The whole country is behind you. The crowd is 90% on your side, every touch met with a roar, every misplaced pass forgiven before the next one. Your legs carry an extra step. Your runs find an extra yard. Yes, you carry expectation. But the noise, the familiar grounds, and the weight of home all push in your favour.

It’s not a surprise, then, that host nations almost always raise their level at a World Cup and get out of the group at minimum. The historical record is a clean 91% from 23 tournaments. Only two hosts have ever broken the pattern.

What’s unique about 2026 is the three-host structure. The United States, Canada, and Mexico are all chasing knockout-stage qualification on home soil. The 91% historical rate has never been tested across three hosts at once.

The 91% host rule

Twenty-one of the twenty-three nations to host a men’s World Cup have advanced past the group stage. The list runs from Uruguay 1930 through Russia 2018 with only two exceptions: South Africa 2010 and Qatar 2022, both eliminated in the first round at home. Six hosts have won the tournament outright (Uruguay 1930, Italy 1934, England 1966, West Germany 1974, Argentina 1978, France 1998); a further seven have reached at least the semi-finals.

What three hosts does to the maths

Run the historical 91% rate across three independent hosts and the probability all three advance to the knockout stage drops to 75.4%. The maths is straightforward: 0.91 × 0.91 × 0.91 = 0.754. Flip that around, and there’s a 24.6% chance, roughly one in four, that at least one of the United States, Canada, or Mexico drops out at the group stage.

The caveat is that the three hosts are not equal. Mexico are regular knockout-stage qualifiers and have advanced through the group stage at every World Cup they have entered since 1990. The United States are an established mid-tier side with a credible knockout history and a soft draw in Group D. Canada are the weakest of the three on form and reputation, although their group draw (Group B alongside Switzerland, Qatar, and the UEFA Path A play-off winner) is the softest in the field at an average Opta Power Rating of 69.9.

In practical terms, the three-host group-clearance question reduces to a question about Canada. Mexico and the United States both carry an at-or-above-the-91% individual advance probability. Canada are the side most likely to drop the run.

Mexico opens the tournament

Mexico kicks the 2026 World Cup off on 11 June at the Estadio Azteca, the same stadium that opened the 1970 and 1986 tournaments. Both of those previous home tournaments saw Mexico advance through the group stage and into the quarter-finals.

The opener carries a recent cautionary precedent, however. Qatar 2022 became the first host nation in World Cup history to lose their opening match (2-0 to Ecuador), and went on to become only the second host (after South Africa 2010) to be eliminated at the group stage.

Mexico’s host record of two-from-two on group-stage advancement plus their consistency through the modern era makes a similar exit unlikely. The opener still carries symbolic weight: a Mexico stumble on day one at the Estadio Azteca puts the three-host knockout-rate question live from the opening fixture.

The records to keep an eye on

Alongside the host-nation framing, World Cup history carries a few records worth noting before the 2026 tournament gets underway:

- Fastest goal: Hakan Sükür, 11 seconds for Turkey against South Korea in the 2002 third-place play-off. Thirteen goals have been scored inside the opening minute of a World Cup match across tournament history.

- Most assists at a single tournament: Pelé’s six from the 1970 World Cup. The standalone outlier; four players have managed five (Gadocha 1974, Littbarski 1982, Maradona 1986, Häßler 1994), but none since.

- Hat-tricks: 54 in tournament history. The 1958 World Cup produced eight, the most at any single edition. The 2006 World Cup in Germany produced zero, the only edition without one. Cristiano Ronaldo (33 years 130 days, against Spain in 2018) is the oldest hat-trick scorer; Pelé (17 years 244 days, against France in 1958) the youngest.

- World Cup final hat-tricks: Only two players have ever scored three in a World Cup final. Geoff Hurst for England against West Germany in 1966 (the only player to do so on the winning side); Kylian Mbappé for France against Argentina in 2022 (lost on penalties).

What’s covered in the full World Cup Briefing

This World Cup Betting Guide covers the full structural framework for outright betting, group qualification markets, and the bracket-path each-way value angle once the group stage is completed.

Inside:

· The three-host knockout-rate maths applied to USA, Canada and Mexico individually

· The three-tier dutching framework for outright stakes including the host overlay

· The bracket-path each-way angle once the Round of 32 draw is locked

· The bankroll structure across the 39-day tournament

The Briefing is built specifically for the 2026 tournament.

World Cup Betting Guide