Tonight’s focus takes us to the Coventry Building Society Arena, where Coventry host Newcastle on the back of their first win of the season at Nottingham Forest. From there we go to Valencia, where Levante are at home to a Sevilla side unbeaten on the road this season.

Coventry City v Newcastle United (8pm UK)

Coventry are 19th with a win and four defeats from their five league games, one goal scored and 10 conceded, and they have yet to score in their two at home. Newcastle are 11th with two wins, two draws and a defeat, nine scored and nine conceded, and the market makes them 2.11 favourites tonight with the draw at 3.50 and Coventry out at 3.30. Newcastle have been quick starters recently, with three of their nine league goals arriving inside the opening 15 minutes, and both teams have scored in four of Newcastle’s five games. Full-time xG comes in at 1.54 for Coventry against 1.41 for Newcastle, a 2.95 combined total with the hosts’ figure slightly the higher of the two.

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Sunday’s Serie A focus starts at the Sinigaglia, where Como host a Roma side still unbeaten after five games. From there we go to Lecce, where the visitors are a Bologna side still looking for a first win of the season, and we finish in Sardinia, where Cagliari have won four of their five and Juventus are the opponents.

Como v Roma (11:30am UK)

Roma sit second with four wins and a draw from their five games, 14 scored and three conceded, and they have won both of their away games without conceding. Como are seventh with three wins, a draw and a defeat, and the market has very little between them this morning at 2.50 Como, 3.50 the draw and 2.60 Roma. Como have been quick out of the blocks recently, with six of their nine league goals arriving before the break, and both teams have scored in four of Como’s five games. Full-time xG comes in at 1.97 for Como against 1.41 for Roma, a 3.38 combined total that gives us our highest chance of goals on Sunday. It all points towards…

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Saturday’s Premier League focus starts at the Emirates, where Arsenal host a Leeds side still unbeaten after five games. From there we go to Stamford Bridge and Villa Park for the 3pm kick-offs, and finish at Old Trafford, where Manchester United host a Tottenham side who are bottom of the table and still without a win.

Four of today’s five positions sit on the Asian Handicap, with one in the goals markets at Stamford Bridge.

Arsenal v Leeds (12:30pm UK)

Arsenal sit second with four wins from five, eight scored and four conceded, and the market has them at 1.40 this lunchtime with the draw at 4.80 and Leeds out at 7.80. Leeds are fifth with two wins and three draws, and the three goals they have conceded is the joint-lowest figure in the division. Full-time xG comes in at 1.67 for Arsenal against 1.20 for Leeds, a 2.87 combined total. It all points towards the handicap at the Emirates.

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Dortmund have won all four of their league games and sit two points clear of Bayern Munich and Freiburg at the top, and the market has them at 1.36 tonight with the draw at 5.30 and Bremen out at 8.10. They have conceded twice all season and neither goal came at home, where Hamburg were beaten 2-0 and Paderborn 3-0. Bremen sit eighth with seven points, all but one of them earned at home, and their two away games have brought a 4-1 defeat at Freiburg and a 1-1 draw at Köln. However, both teams have scored in all four of Bremen’s games and they put three past both Leipzig and Augsburg. Full-time xG comes in at 1.55 for Dortmund against 1.45 for Bremen, a 3.01 combined total and a good deal closer than those prices suggest. It all points towards the handicap and the goal lines tonight.

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Sunday’s focus stays in the Spanish second tier, where Eibar host Las Palmas and Burgos take on Eldense, both at half past five.

Saturday Results

Two from two on Saturday. Andorra, who had lost five of their six league games, won 3-2 at Granada, Jordi Cano scoring inside seven minutes and again on fifty to put them two clear before Mario Gambin pulled one back late. The quarter-goal start returned in full. Burton won 1-0 at Home Park through Jack Armer on seventy, which was more than the goal of start required.

SD Eibar v UD Las Palmas (5:30pm UK)

Eibar are 2.01 at Ipurua, with the draw at 3.35 and Las Palmas at 3.60. Full-time xG comes in at 1.42 for Eibar against 1.26 for Las Palmas, a 2.68 combined total, and the gap between the two sides is a sixth of a goal. Eibar have taken fifteen points from six league games and won five of them, scoring twelve and conceding four. Las Palmas sit on ten from the same six with eight scored and eight conceded, and on the road they have scored seven and conceded one.

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Saturday’s focus takes us to Granada, where Granada CF host an FC Andorra side that has lost five of its six league games this season. An hour earlier at Home Park, Plymouth Argyle take on a Burton Albion team that has drawn three of its seven and scored and conceded twelve apiece.

The market has Granada at 2.32, with Andorra and the draw both at 3.28. At Home Park it is 1.57 about a Plymouth home win, 4.15 the draw, and Burton out at 5.21.

Granada have taken eight points from six league games, two wins, two draws and two defeats, with eight goals scored and eight conceded. Andorra have managed one win and five defeats, nine scored and thirteen conceded, and eight of those nine goals have arrived after half-time.

Plymouth come in with four wins from seven and two wins and a defeat from three at home, fourteen goals scored and ten against. Burton’s twelve goals are spread oddly. Six of them have landed between the 16th and 30th minute. Both of today’s positions sit with the visiting side.

Granada CF v FC Andorra, 15:15 UK

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Sunday’s focus takes us to the Etihad, the Vitality and Elland Road at two o’clock, and then to Craven Cottage, where Fulham have taken one point from four league games.

Saturday Results

Two from three on Saturday. Tottenham and Aston Villa had one league goal between them going into the lunchtime game and produced five, Villa three ahead through Johan Manzambi, Nicolas Jackson and Emiliano Buendía before Conor Gallagher and a Jan Paul van Hecke header eight minutes into stoppage time made the finish 2-3. Newcastle beat Hull 2-1, and the Under 3.5 owes a good deal to Yoane Wissa, whose penalty on the stroke of half time would have turned Mohamed-Ali Cho’s finish on 67 into the fourth goal. Everton beat Ipswich 1-0 through Thierno Barry on eleven minutes, and the quarter-goal start went with it.

Manchester City v Sunderland (2pm UK)

Manchester City are 1.29 at the Etihad, with the draw at 5.75 and Sunderland out at 8.00. Full-time xG comes in at 1.50 for City against 1.21 for Sunderland, a 2.71 combined total. Only 1.18 of that is expected before the interval, and City’s share of it is 0.87 against Sunderland’s 0.31. City have scored eight in four league games and six of them arrived after the break. A side priced at 1.29 is expected to create less than a goal’s worth of chances in the opening forty-five.

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Saturday’s focus takes us to north London at lunchtime, where Tottenham and Aston Villa have managed one goal between them since the season started, then to St James’ Park for a Hull side yet to lose, and finally to Merseyside for Everton against an Ipswich team that won 3-2 at Crystal Palace last time out.

Friday Results

One from two on Friday, and Elche won 3-1 at Espanyol with ten men from the sixth minute. Federico Redondo went for a professional foul as the last man, Fer Niño scored twice inside four minutes before the half hour, and a Víctor Chust own goal on 72 was the closest Espanyol came before Germán Valera settled it. The three-quarter line returned a profit in full. Lens were level at Monaco with six minutes to go and the half-goal start still returning, until Jonathan Gradit turned Monaco’s winner into his own net on 84.

Tottenham v Aston Villa (12:30pm UK)

Tottenham are 2.00 at home, with the draw at 3.70 and Villa out at 3.00. Full-time xG comes in at 1.73 for Tottenham against 1.33 for Villa, a 3.06 combined total with 1.43 of that expected before the break. The season so far has produced something rather different. Tottenham have failed to score in four league games and taken two points, Villa have scored once in four and taken one, and the pair have conceded twelve between them. A 3.06 combined expected total is a curious number for two sides in that state.

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Tonight’s focus takes us to the Stade Louis II for Monaco against Lens, and then to Barcelona, where Espanyol host an Elche side still on two points from six games.

Thursday Results

Nothing landed on Thursday. Ilhan Fakili put Besiktas ahead in the first half and Keyliane Abdallah levelled fourteen minutes later, and that second goal was the one that beat the no-goals position. Besiktas then scored three inside thirteen minutes of the restart through Vaclav Cerny and Amir Murillo, Ernest Poku added a fourth on 81, and Marseille lost a fourth in a row. The position was gone before half time and everything after it belonged to Besiktas.

Monaco v Lens (7:45pm UK)

Monaco are 2.05 at the Stade Louis II, with the draw at 3.65 and Lens out at 3.15. The xG trend is moderate at a combined 2.925 and there is almost nothing in it, 1.455 for Monaco against 1.470 for Lens. The market has the home side more than a point shorter than a visiting team it barely separates on expected output.

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Tonight’s focus takes us to Istanbul, where Besiktas host a Marseille side that has lost its last three.

Wednesday Results

One from two on Wednesday. Benfica won 2-0 at San Siro and the no-goals position returned a profit in full, Lukebakio scoring before the break and Kaminski early in the second half. Lyon won 2-1 in Brussels and a single goal beat the Anderlecht under, Cvetkovic heading one back after Nartey and Nakamura had put Lyon two up inside the first half.

Besiktas v Marseille (8pm UK)

Besiktas are 1.83 at home, with the draw at 4.00 and Marseille out at 3.90. Full-time expected goals come in at 1.965 for Besiktas against 0.581 for Marseille, a 2.546 combined total. Besiktas are unbeaten in six at home, and Marseille arrive on three straight defeats with two of those on the road.

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Tonight the Europa League league phase begins, and our attention goes to San Siro and the Lotto Park. Milan host a Benfica side that has won its last seven in all competitions, and Anderlecht welcome Lyon to Brussels.

Tuesday Results

One from one on Tuesday. Millwall took a point from the Riverside in a 2-2 draw and the full-goal start returned a profit in full. Tairyk Arconte and Lyndon Dykes had Millwall two up inside 36 minutes before Amario Cozier-Duberry and Will Lankshear brought Middlesbrough level either side of the hour.

AC Milan v Benfica (8pm UK)

Milan are 2.02 at San Siro, with the draw at 3.51 and Benfica out at 2.90. Full-time expected goals come in at 0.762 for Milan against 1.890 for Benfica, a 2.652 combined total, and only 1.021 of that lands before the break. Milan have taken seven points from their first three in Serie A and are yet to lose this season, while Benfica have scored at least three goals in eight of their last eleven.

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Tonight’s focus takes us to the Riverside, where Middlesbrough host a Millwall side that has gone past a goal and a half in eight of its last ten.

Monday Results

Nothing landed on Monday. Torino were beaten 2-0 at home by Roma, and the three-quarter line was set to refund half the stake at 0-1 until Niccolo Pisilli scored in the 93rd minute. Donyell Malen had put Roma in front five minutes before the break, and the win took Gian Piero Gasperini’s side to four wins from four.

Middlesbrough v Millwall (7:45pm UK)

Middlesbrough are 1.59 at the Riverside, with the draw at 4.20 and Millwall out at 5.00. Full-time expected goals come in at 1.5395 for Middlesbrough against 1.3115 for Millwall, a 2.851 combined total, and the first-half split runs 0.848 to 0.489 in the home side’s favour. Middlesbrough have gone past two and a half goals in two of their last ten and Millwall in four, with both teams scoring in six of ten for each side.

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Tonight’s focus takes us to Turin, where Torino host an in-form Roma, who have won all three of their league games so far this season.

Sunday Results

Nothing landed on Sunday. Real Sociedad were still level with Atletico Madrid going into the last ten minutes at the Reale Arena, before Alejandro Grimaldo scored a penalty on 84 minutes and Jonathan David and Giuliano Simeone added two more in stoppage time. Manchester City won at Old Trafford with ten men from the 23rd minute, Phil Foden sent off for violent conduct and Erling Haaland scoring the only goal on the hour. Argentinos Juniors were a man down themselves from the 41st and drew 1-1 with Gimnasia, Gaston Veron levelling on 74 minutes.

Torino v Roma (5:30pm UK)

Roma are 1.60 in Turin, with the draw at 4.00 and Torino out at 5.50. Full-time expected goals come in at 1.473 for Torino against 1.313 for Roma, a 2.786 combined total, and Roma’s own split weights towards the second half, 0.88 after the break against 0.66 before it. Torino lost their opening two league games before winning 2-1 at Fiorentina, and Ignazio Abate is without Che Adams, Cesare Casadei, Pietro Pellegri and Franco Israel, with Giovanni Simeone a doubt and Saul Coco back available. Abate has said he could play the game without a centre-forward. Manu Kone is expected to start on the bench for Roma after a knock in midweek.

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Three value positions identified for Sunday. The Manchester derby is at half four, Real Sociedad host Atlético Madrid at eight, and Argentinos Juniors close the evening against Gimnasia at nine.

Manchester City have won all three of their league games and scored just two of their seven goals before half time.

Saturday Results

Two from two on Saturday, and Cagliari won at Bergamo. Lazio led Milan 2-0 at the interval through Matteo Cancellieri and Tijjani Noslin, only for Diego Moreira to come off the bench at half time and score twice inside two minutes, so the quarter-goal line settled half the stake as a winner and refunded the rest. Paul Mendy had put Cagliari ahead off the underside of the bar on 19 minutes, Gianluca Scamacca levelled before the break, and Daniel Maldini settled it from the penalty spot on the hour for a 2-1 win that returned the three-quarter line in full.

Manchester United v Manchester City (4:30pm UK)

City are 2.15 at Old Trafford, with the draw at 3.75 and United at 3.10. Full-time xG comes in at 1.3513 for United against 1.4372 for City, a 2.7885 combined total, and the second-half split runs 0.823 to 1.091 in the visitors’ favour. United sit 13th on four points from three, beaten at Hull, 5-2 winners over Ipswich and pegged back to 2-2 at Everton. City are second with nine points from nine and two goals conceded. It is a first Manchester derby for Michael Carrick and for Enzo Maresca, and Carrick is without Manuel Ugarte, Matthijs de Ligt, Carlos Baleba, Amad Diallo and Tom Heaton.

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Two value positions identified for Saturday, both of them in Serie A. Lazio host Milan at five o’clock and Atalanta take on Cagliari a quarter to eight.

Lazio have won all three of their league games so far and conceded once.

Friday Results

Nothing landed on Friday. Sevilla and Valencia were goalless until the 81st minute at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, when Juan Iglesias headed the only goal of the night, so the Over 2.5 never got going. In Venice, Akor Adams put Venezia in front on 22 minutes before Franco Mastantuono answered with two goals inside sixty seconds either side of the half hour, going on to complete a hat-trick in a 4-2 win on Paolo Vanoli’s first night back in charge of Fiorentina.

Lazio v AC Milan (5pm UK)

Milan are 2.25 in Rome, with the draw at 3.20 and Lazio at 3.36. Full-time xG comes in at 1.4417 for Lazio against 1.0470 for Milan, a 2.4887 combined total, and the second-half split runs 0.691 to 0.942 in the visitors’ favour. Lazio have taken nine points from nine and given up a single goal. Milan are unbeaten with two wins and a draw at Juventus, and Rúben Amorim confirmed on Friday that Christian Pulisic will feature and that Matteo Gabbia is available again.

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Two value positions identified for Friday. Sevilla host Valencia at eight in the only La Liga game of the night, and Venezia take on Fiorentina a quarter of an hour earlier in Serie A.

Valencia arrive bottom of La Liga with one goal scored in four games.

Thursday Results

One from two on Thursday, and Estrela Amadora triumphed over Sporting Braga. Braga led inside five minutes through Gabri Martínez, Ianis Stoica levelled on the stroke of half time and scored again on 56, and Estrela won outright with the three-quarters of a goal to spare. In Prague the BTTS No was still standing at 73 minutes, Slavia a goal up and down to ten men after Mikuláš Konečný was sent off on 49, when Abdallah Sima equalised. Danijel Šturm put the hosts back in front on 88 and Lens scored twice in stoppage time to win it 3-2.

Sevilla v Valencia (8pm UK)

Sevilla are 2.05 at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, with the draw at 3.20 and Valencia at 3.80. Full-time xG comes in at 1.5459 for Sevilla against 1.0635 for Valencia, a 2.6094 combined total. Sevilla have seven points from four and have scored in every one of them. Valencia have one point, one goal and nine conceded, and lost 5-0 at home to Barcelona last Sunday with supporters protesting against the ownership outside Mestalla before kick-off.

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Two value positions identified for Thursday. Slavia Praha host Lens at eight, one of six Champions League games on the night, and Estrela Amadora take on Sporting Braga a quarter of an hour later.

Lens arrive with an away expected-goals figure of 0.706, the lowest of any side across Thursday’s Champions League fixtures.

Wednesday Results

One from five on Wednesday, and Telstar were the one. A single Ørjasæter goal on 65 minutes settled it at De Grolsch Veste, and the goal-and-a-quarter start covered that defeat in full. Benfica had been three up at Moreirense with eighteen minutes left when Aursnes made it four and took the Under 3.5 with it, Norwich led Birmingham 2-0 inside forty minutes, St Johnstone and Celtic went in level at McDiarmid Park before Baur settled it after the hour, and Barcelona were two up on Feyenoord by the 22nd minute.

SK Slavia Praha v Lens (8pm UK)

Slavia are 2.55 at the Fortuna Arena, with the draw at 3.50 and Lens at 2.65. Full-time xG comes in at 1.985 for Slavia against 0.706 for Lens, a 2.691 combined total, and the first-half split runs 1.011 to 0.334 in the home side’s favour. Lens open their league phase under Dino Toppmöller on the back of a defeat at Lorient, with Yacine Titraoui out and Matthieu Udol a doubt after a dead leg.

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Five value positions identified for Wednesday. Barcelona and Twente both kick off at quarter to six, Norwich at quarter to eight, Celtic at eight and Benfica at quarter to nine.

Twente carry the highest expected goals of any home side on Wednesday at 2.37, and Telstar arrive conceding 2.11 on the road. Barcelona are 1.11 at home to Feyenoord.

Tuesday Results

Nothing landed on Tuesday, and Utrecht were the closest to changing that. Three goals down at home to Go Ahead Eagles, they were level by the 90th, an Artem Stepanov penalty completing the comeback and turning the -0.25 handicap into a half-loss rather than a full one. Cardiff and Stoke managed one goal before the interval where the line needed two, Southampton led Swansea 2-0 at the break on the way to 3-1, and both Champions League ties ran past their unders lines, five goals at the Jan Breydel and three at the Bernabeu.

FC Barcelona v Feyenoord (5:45pm UK)

Barcelona are 1.11 at the Camp Nou, with the draw out at 13.00 and Feyenoord at 25.00. Full-time xG comes in at 1.735 for Barcelona against 1.485 for Feyenoord, a 3.22 combined total. Neither defence has been giving much away, Barcelona conceding 0.96 goals’ worth of chances a game across the recent sample and Feyenoord 0.99. Feyenoord have scored nine first-half goals in their last ten and conceded none.

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Five positions on Tuesday, spread across the Eredivisie, the Champions League and the Championship. Utrecht start the day at one o’clock, Aston Villa are in Bruges at quarter to six, Cardiff and Southampton kick off at quarter to eight, and Real Madrid have Inter at eight.

Utrecht carry the highest expected goals of any home side on the card at 2.04. Go Ahead Eagles arrive having conceded 2.60 goals’ worth of chances a game on the road and without an away win in their last ten.

Monday Results

One from four on Monday. Udinese and Lazio came good, goalless at the interval before three goals in the last 41 minutes settled the FT Over 2.5 at 2.42. Elche were a Luka Sucic goal in the 90th minute from a very different evening, having come from two down to level at 2-2 with Real Sociedad a man short from the hour. Cagliari’s 1-0 against Lecce was decided by a Daniel Maldini header on 29 minutes and never moved again.

FC Utrecht v Go Ahead Eagles (1pm UK)

Utrecht are 2.00 at the Galgenwaard, with the draw at 4.20 and the Eagles out at 3.50. Full-time xG comes in at 2.04 for Utrecht against 1.44, a 3.48 combined total and the busiest game on the card. The defensive numbers are what separate them: Utrecht concede 1.71 goals’ worth of chances a game, the Eagles 2.60. Utrecht have won four of their last ten; Go Ahead have won none of their last ten on the road, drawing three and losing seven.

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Monday gives us two games in Serie A and two in La Liga, and we are covering three of them. Cagliari have Lecce in the early kick-off, Udinese host Lazio at the Dacia Arena, and Elche close the evening against Real Sociedad.

Elche are a slight underdog in their own stadium at 2.97, with Real Sociedad in at 2.36, and they arrive having conceded 0.66 goals’ worth of chances a game across the recent sample. That is the meanest defensive number on today’s card by some distance.

Four positions today, two on the Sardinian game and one on each of the others.

Sunday Results

One from three on Sunday. Chelsea led at the Emirates inside two minutes through Morgan Rogers, which fired the first-goal trade on the handicap, but Kai Havertz levelled on 25 and Martin Ødegaard won it five minutes after the restart. Those two first-half goals landed the FH Over 1.5 at 2.52. The pre-match Chelsea +0.75 at 2.00 was beaten by the single goal, which costs half the stake. Juventus and Milan finished 1-1 with both goals arriving after the hour and Federico Gatti heading in two minutes into stoppage time, so the FT Over 2.5 at 2.17 went down.

Full xG, +EV and Trading Analysis

Cagliari v Lecce (5:30pm UK)

Cagliari are 2.00 at home, with the draw at 3.07 and Lecce out at 4.20. Full-time xG comes in at 1.44 for Cagliari against 1.27 for Lecce, a 2.71 combined total. Across the last ten Cagliari have won two and drawn one, creating 1.33 goals’ worth of chances a game while conceding 1.27, against Lecce winning three and drawing one on 1.28 created and 1.56 conceded. The distance the market has put between a 2.00 home side and a 4.20 away side is not in those numbers.

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