+27.3% EV on offer at the Stadium of Light
Premier League Analyse: Best +EV Bets and Value Trading Plan
Nottingham Forest come into Friday evening at the Stadium of Light on the back of a comeback win against Burnley last weekend, a 4-1 finish powered by a Morgan Gibbs-White hat-trick. The Europa League semi-final waits for them next week, and one more league win is likely enough to seal Premier League safety. Sunderland have outperformed expectations throughout the campaign and their home record has been the foundation of that overachievement, but the recent picture suggests a side running out of steam: the win against Spurs last time was their first home league success since 3 February.
Accumulator Formula update
We have continued to go from strength to strength on the Accumulator Formula. Acca #17 landed combined odds of 5.45 and a combined expected value of +20.8%:
Horsens v Esbjerg BTTS Yes at 1.80
Stoke v Millwall BTTS Yes at 1.73,
Cheltenham v Tranmere BTTS Yes at 1.75. A
Settled at +£111.25.
Overall performance has been excellent throughout April.
**8 wins from 17 accumulators**
**47.06% strike rate**
**£425 total staked**
**+£500.50 net profit**.
+117.8% gross return on stakes.
Premier League Value Recommendations (xGenius Premium Readers - upgrade here)
Wednesday’s preview at the Vitality Stadium returned both pre-match positions on Bournemouth v Leeds. BTTS Yes at 1.63 (+9.14%) won, FT Over 2.5 at 1.73 (+11.64%) won. Two from two on the Wednesday preview.
Sunday’s Premier League programme returned five from five across three fixtures:
- Aston Villa v Sunderland: BTTS Yes at 1.83 (+13.05%) won, FT Over 2.5 at 1.90 (+12.25%) won
- Everton v Liverpool: FT Over 2.5 at 1.90 (+3.10%) won
- Manchester City v Arsenal: FT Over 2.5 at 2.03 (+21.33%) won, FH Over 1.5 at 2.93 (+21.66%) won
Sunderland v Nott’m Forest
The expected-output picture is close, but the form picture pushes in one direction.
Full-time xG comes in at 1.43 for Sunderland against 1.59 for Forest, a 3.01 combined total that sits within the Premier League average. Forest’s last five away fixtures return three wins, two draws and no losses, with 2.2 goals scored per game and 1.0 conceded. Sunderland’s last four at home read one win against three losses, with just 0.5 scored and 1.25 conceded per match.
