Dortmund have won all four of their league games and sit two points clear of Bayern Munich and Freiburg at the top, and the market has them at 1.36 tonight with the draw at 5.30 and Bremen out at 8.10. They have conceded twice all season and neither goal came at home, where Hamburg were beaten 2-0 and Paderborn 3-0. Bremen sit eighth with seven points, all but one of them earned at home, and their two away games have brought a 4-1 defeat at Freiburg and a 1-1 draw at Köln. However, both teams have scored in all four of Bremen’s games and they put three past both Leipzig and Augsburg. Full-time xG comes in at 1.55 for Dortmund against 1.45 for Bremen, a 3.01 combined total and a good deal closer than those prices suggest. It all points towards the handicap and the goal lines tonight.
