Champions League: Best +EV Bets & Trading Plan
Champions League Preview: Atlético vs Brugge, Leverkusen vs Olympiakos — 24 Feb 2026
Tonight’s Fixtures at a Glance
Four second-leg ties kick off Tuesday evening. Two carry genuine pre-match value; two are monitor-only.
Atlético Madrid vs Club Brugge 17:45 3-3 (at Brugge) 3-3
Bayer Leverkusen vs Olympiakos 20:00 2-0 (at Olympiakos) 2-0 Lev
Newcastle vs Qarabağ 20:00 6-1 (at Newcastle) 6-1 New
Inter Milan vs Bodø/Glimt 20:00 1-3 (at Inter) 1-3 Bodø
✅ SELECT — Atlético Madrid vs Club Brugge
Kickoff: 17:45 GMT | Aggregate: 3-3 | Second leg at Atlético
The Setup
This tie is beautifully poised. The 3-3 first leg at Brugge was chaotic — but crucially, Atlético scored three away from home, demonstrating genuine attacking threat on the road. They now return to the Metropolitano with the aggregate level and home advantage firmly in their corner.
Brugge proved they can score freely (3.2 goals per away game recently, 80% BTTS away) but their defensive record on the road is porous — 2.0 conceded per game, 1.59 xGA. Against Atlético’s elite home attack (2.08 xG for, 1.07 xGA), the model expects a home win but with Brugge very much involved in the scoring.
The market prices Atlético as heavy favourites at 1.38, but our model puts the true win probability at 62.3% — a full ten percentage points below what the odds imply. That creates value on the other side.
Model Output
Metric Value Atlético xG 2.15 (adjusted) Brugge xG 1.07 (adjusted) Total xG 3.22 Model P(Atlético Win) 62.3% Model P(Draw) 18.5% Model P(Brugge Win) 19.2% BTTS Probability 58.5%
Top Poisson scorelines: 2-1 Atlético (10.4%), 1-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (8.2%), 1-0 (7.6%)
Primary Selection: Brugge +1.25 AH @ 2.08
Asian Handicap — Club Brugge +1.25 Odds 2.08 (Pinnacle)
Model Probability 60.3% [CI: 51.4%–68.7%]
EV +25.4%
Confidence Score 7.2/10 ✅
Stake 1.5% bankroll
Why this line? Even in a probable Atlético victory, the +1.25 cushion covers all draws and one-goal defeats. Brugge’s 80% away BTTS rate and 19.2% outright win probability mean the cover rate is strong. The market is overpricing Atlético’s home dominance — their actual home win rate is just 40% in recent matches despite elite xG numbers.
Aggregate context strengthens the case: With the tie level, Brugge won’t park the bus. They need a result and showed at home they can trade blows with Atlético. An open game favours the handicap cover.
Secondary Selection: First Half Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.06
First Half Over 1.5 Goals Odds 2.06
Model Probability 65% (median of 56.6% Poisson / 71.3% adjusted)
EV +16.6%
Confidence Score 6.0/10 ✅
Stake 1.0% bankroll
Why? Atlético’s last 10 home: 70% saw 2+ first-half goals. Brugge’s last 10 away: 80% went Over 1.5 in the first half, with 100% seeing at least one first-half goal. Combined empirical expectation of 75% smashes the market’s implied 48.5%. Both sides start aggressively — Atlético scored 3 in the opening 30 minutes of recent home matches; Brugge average a first goal inside 3 minutes away.
Trade setup: Back @ 2.06 pre-match → lay after first goal (typically 20-35’) at 1.40-1.60 for 30-40% profit swing.
