Real Madrid vs Bayern München
Bayern appear to be overpriced as away favourites. Bet365 imply a 46.08% probability of a Bayern win. Our model puts it at 40.28% — a divergence of 5.80 percentage points, which is significant.
xG overview
Real Madrid carry a full-time xG of 1.595, with 0.735 expected in the first half. Bayern come in at 1.660 full-time xG, with 0.650 in the first half. Combined expected goals: 3.255. Two sides who are both capable of creating significant scoring opportunities, while have enough some defensive exposure to allow for a relatively open game.
Scoreline distribution
1-1 11.6%
1-2 8.5%
2-1 8.2%
2-2 6.8%
0-2 5.3%
0-0 5.2%
0-1 5.1%
2-0 4.9%
The 1-1 leads the distribution at 11.6%, and four of the top eight outcomes involve at least one goal for each side. The xGenius models sees this as an open, competitive contest with no clearly dominant side on the numbers.
Market view
The Draw presents the most interesting pre-match market with a model probability (25.09%) exceeding the bookmakers implied probability(24.10%). This presents an EV +4.12% at 4.15, but our preference is to focus on the InPlay markets.
In-Play Setup — Draw market
Real Madrid’s timing data shows attacking threat concentrating in the 16-30’ and 31-45’ windows (3 goals each in their last 10). Bayern’s most dangerous period is 61-75’.
Trigger: Match is 1-0 or 0-1 at the 30-minute mark and combined first-half xG is tracking around the pre-match estimate.
Position: Back the draw at odds 4.80 or greater.
Exit: Close immediately if the losing side pulls level.
Sporting CP vs Arsenal FC
Sporting CP host Arsenal FC at the Estádio José Alvalade.
The goal markets in this fixture show some interesting angles. Sporting are one of Europe’s most prolific home teams (3.30 goals per game in their last 10 at home), while Arsenal carry an 83% BTTS rate in away fixtures.
