Module 4 – Using xG Effectively In-Play

xG Decoded– Using Expected Goals to Predict, Trade, and Profit Smarter

---

🎯 xG Decoded – Using Expected Goals to Predict, Trade, and Profit Smarter

⚡ Module 4 – Using xG Effectively In-Play

---

Lesson 4.1 — When and How to Apply xG Live

Introduction

xG’s true strength isn’t in pre-match models — it’s in the live flow of a game.

Used correctly, live xG tells you when pressure is building to the point that a goal is statistically due — not just possible.

But timing is everything. Enter too early and you face time decay. Wait too long and the market prices in your edge.

The Core Principle