Module 7 – Predicting Goals Using xG Deficits

xG Decoded – Using Expected Goals to Predict, Trade, and Profit Smarter

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🎯 Module 7 – Predicting Goals Using xG Deficits

Lesson 7.1 — Understanding the xG Deficit Concept

Introduction

An xG deficit measures the gap between how many goals have been scored and how many should have been scored, based on xG probability.

It quantifies how much “goal expectation” remains unfulfilled in a match.