Estrela Amadora vs Moreirense: Primeira Liga Match Preview Value Analysis
Primeira Liga — Gameweek 15 Saturday 20:30
Estrela Amadora vs Moreirense: Primeira Liga Match Preview & BTTS Value Analysis
Primeira Liga — Gameweek 15 Saturday 20:30
Two sides with defensive vulnerabilities meet in a fixture the model flags for goals. Estrela Amadora have conceded 22 in their last ten. Moreirense have shipped exactly the same.
The question is whether the market has priced these weaknesses correctly.
The Form Picture
Looking at the last 10 matches for each side:
Metric Estrela Amadora Moreirense FC Goals scored 1.2 per game 0.8 per game Goals conceded 2.2 per game 2.2 per game Combined goal avg 3.4 per game 3.0 per game
Both teams are conceding over two goals per game. Combined, that’s 4.4 goals conceded per game between them. Even accounting for overlap, this points toward an open contest.
Estrela’s home xG tells a more nuanced story: 1.68 expected goals for, 1.14 against. They create chances. They also concede them, though perhaps not quite as frequently as the raw scorelines suggest. The expected goals model is slightly kinder to their defensive structure than the actual results.
Moreirense away: 0.97 xG for, 1.61 xG against. They struggle to create on the road and they’re exposed at the back.
That 0.97 figure is relevant for the BTTS thesis. Can they find the net?
Timing Analysis: When Goals Arrive
Worth noting for in-play traders.
Combined 15-minute clusters (both teams, scored + conceded):
Goals cluster immediately after half-time (46-60’) and in the final fifteen minutes (76-90’). Those two windows account for 23 of the 47 goal events in our sample.
Half splits:
Team First Half Second Half Estrela (scored/conceded) 4/2 8/9 Moreirense (scored/conceded) 6/3 9/11
Both sides are more vulnerable in the second half. Moreirense particularly so, conceding nearly four times as many after the break as before it.
In-play note: If this match is 0-0 at 20 minutes and Over 2.5 drifts to ≥2.60, the data supports re-entering. The 46-60’ and 76-90’ clusters suggest goals will come.
xG Model Projections
Our xG-based model produces the following projections:
Metric Value Estrela home xG 1.68 Moreirense away xG (adjusted) 0.93 Implied total xG 2.61
Running this through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with Bayesian Gamma priors:
Outcome Model Probability BTTS Yes 63% Over 2.5 65% Home win 53% Draw 22% Away win 25%
The model favours goals. Both BTTS and Over 2.5 clear the 60% threshold.
Correct Score Distribution
The Monte Carlo simulation produces the following most likely score lines:
The two most likely scorelines (1-1 and 2-1) both satisfy BTTS. Combined, they account for 23.1% of simulated outcomes. Add in other BTTS scorelines and you reach the 63% model probability.
For correct score traders: 2-1 at fair odds of 8.9 is worth comparing to market prices. If you can find 9.2+, there’s value.
Value Assessment
BTTS Yes — Primary Selection
Factor Value Model probability 63% Implied probability (market) 50.8% Fair odds 1.59 Best market odds 1.97 Edge +24%
A meaningful edge. The market is pricing BTTS at just over evens implied, while our model has it at 63%.
The thesis rests on both defences being vulnerable. Estrela concede 2.2 per game. Moreirense concede 2.2 per game. Even if Moreirense only score at their away rate (0.8 per game), Estrela’s defensive record suggests they’ll find the net more often than not.
Over 2.5 Goals — Secondary Selection
Factor Value Model probability 65% Implied probability (market) 43.9% Fair odds 1.54 Best market odds 2.28 Edge +48%
The Over 2.5 edge is larger than BTTS. The market is pricing this fixture as if it’s a below-average scoring affair, when the underlying data suggests otherwise.
Note the correlation. BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 overlap significantly. Backing both doubles your exposure to the same fundamental thesis: an open, higher-scoring game. Consider this when sizing.
Estrela Amadora -0.25 Asian Handicap
Factor Value Model probability ~75% effective cover Market odds 2.10 Edge ~+12%
A moderate edge on the handicap. The quarter-ball line means you get half back if Estrela win by exactly one, full payout on two or more. At 53% home win probability and 22% draw, the effective cover rate is solid. But this is a secondary play to the goals markets.
Recommendations Summary
Primary value: BTTS Yes at 1.97 offers a +24% edge. Both defences are conceding regularly; both attacks create enough chances to expect at least one goal each.
Secondary value: Over 2.5 at 2.28 carries the largest nominal edge (+48%), though it correlates with BTTS. If you’re taking one position, Over 2.5 offers better value. If you’re comfortable with correlated exposure, both selections work together.
Staking note: The analysis recommends 1.5% on Over 2.5, 1% on BTTS. Combined exposure of 2.5% on what is essentially the same thesis.
In-Play Triggers
0-0 at 20’: If Over 2.5 drifts to ≥2.60, reinstate the position
0-0 at 60’: With live xG ≥1.8, back Over 1.5 as conservative cover
Any goal before 60’: Consider greening up 30% of Over 2.5 if price falls to ≤1.60
The timing clusters (46-60’ and 76-90’) suggest patience. Don’t exit early if the first half is quiet.
Key Risks
Moreirense’s away output: 0.8 goals per game on the road is limited. They could fail to score despite Estrela’s defensive issues.
Model variance: Gamma posterior σ is <0.15, which is acceptable, but Portuguese league samples carry inherent noise.
Correlation: Backing both BTTS and Over 2.5 feels like two bets but is really one thesis. Size accordingly.
Final Word
Two vulnerable defences, 63% BTTS probability, and a market pricing it at evens. The value is there.
The timing data is useful for in-play traders: expect activity after half-time. The 46-60’ window has produced 12 goal events across both teams’ recent samples. If you’re trading rather than betting, that’s your window.
Stake within your bankroll rules. Even solid edges lose individual bets. The goal is consistent execution of positive expected value decisions.
Good trading.
All odds quoted were available at time of analysis. Primeira Liga GW-15, Saturday 20:30.