Estrela Amadora vs Moreirense: Primeira Liga Match Preview Value Analysis
Primeira Liga — Gameweek 15 Saturday 20:30
Estrela Amadora vs Moreirense: Primeira Liga Match Preview & BTTS Value Analysis
Primeira Liga — Gameweek 15 Saturday 20:30
Two sides with defensive vulnerabilities meet in a fixture the model flags for goals. Estrela Amadora have conceded 22 in their last ten. Moreirense have shipped exactly the same.
The question is whether the market has priced these weaknesses correctly.
The Form Picture
Looking at the last 10 matches for each side:
Metric Estrela Amadora Moreirense FC Goals scored 1.2 per game 0.8 per game Goals conceded 2.2 per game 2.2 per game Combined goal avg 3.4 per game 3.0 per game
Both teams are conceding over two goals per game. Combined, that’s 4.4 goals conceded per game between them. Even accounting for overlap, this points toward an open contest.
Estrela’s home xG tells a more nuanced story: 1.68 expected goals for, 1.14 against. They create chances. They also concede them, though perhaps not quite as frequently as the raw scorelines suggest. The expected goals model is slightly kinder to their defensive structure than the actual results.
Moreirense away: 0.97 xG for, 1.61 xG against. They struggle to create on the road and they’re exposed at the back.
