Premier League — Saturday, 24 January 2026 Four fixtures across the day
Four Premier League fixtures on Saturday, and the models have identified several meaningful discrepancies between market pricing and true probabilities.
One match stands out with exceptional edge on the home side. Another offers strong goals value at longer odds. A couple should be approached with caution — though targeted in-play opportunities may emerge.
Let’s work through the key fixtures.
The Saturday Fixture Program
Kick-off Home Away Focus
12:30 West Ham Sunderland Goals value
15:00 Man City Wolves Avoid pre-match
15:00 Burnley Spurs Goals value (O3.5)
15:00 Fulham Brighton best value
Fulham vs Brighton
The Headline Match — Exceptional Home Value
This is where Saturday’s clearest value sits. The model-market divergence here is substantial.
The market has priced Brighton as slight favourites at 2.58. Our model disagrees — significantly. Fulham at home are undervalued.
Fulham’s recent form shows a 60% win rate at Craven Cottage, averaging 1.53 xG created against just 1.26 xGA conceded. Brighton away tell a different story — 40% win rate, conceding 1.97 xGA per match, and crucially, zero clean sheets in their last 10 away fixtures.
Model vs Market — Match Odds
Brighton are poor value at 2.66. The edge sits firmly with Fulham.
Asian Handicap Value
Fulham 0.0 (DNB) 1.88 44.6% +19.1%
Fulham -0.25 2.10 52.4% +9.9%
The DNB line offers exceptional value — nearly 20% edge. The -0.25 provides a middle ground with solid 10% edge.
Goals Perspective
Combined xG of 2.91 (Fulham 1.53, Brighton 1.38) supports goals.
Over 2.5 Goals 1.75 +10.0% BTTS Yes 1.62 +5.9%
Brighton have scored in 10 of 10 away matches. Fulham have scored in 8 of 10 home matches. Both teams finding the net is well-supported.
Most Likely Final Scores
Scoreline Probability 1-1 12.4% 1-0 11.9% 2-1 10.2% 0-1 9.8%
The distribution favours low-scoring Fulham wins and draws. The 1-0 and 2-1 score-lines support the Fulham DNB thesis.
Recommendations:
✅ Fulham 0.0 AH (DNB) @ 1.88 — Edge +19.1%, Confidence 7/10
✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 — Edge +10.0%
Stake: 1 unit on DNB, 0.75 units on O2.5
Burnley vs Tottenham
Goals Expected — O3.5 Offers Standout Value
This fixture offers the second-best edge of the day, but it’s in the Over 3.5 market rather than match odds.
Burnley’s home record shows 50% of matches landing Over 3.5. Spurs away are even more chaotic — 60% Over 2.5, 74% BTTS, and they’ve conceded in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
Combined xG of 3.18 (Burnley 1.49, Spurs 1.69) points toward goals.
Model vs Market — Goals
Over 3.5 Goals 3.56 50% +18.0%
Over 2.5 Goals 2.07 60% +7.2%
BTTS Yes 1.75 62% +4.9%
The standout is Over 3.5 at 3.56 — that’s an 18% edge at decent odds.
Match Winner Analysis
Burnley 3.30 26.4% -3.9%
Draw 3.50 27.1% -1.5%
Spurs 2.02 46.5% -3.0%
No match odds value — all lines show negative EV. The edge sits in goals markets only.
Recommendations:
✅ Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.56 — Edge +18.0%, Sanity Score 8/10 (PRIMARY)
✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.07 — Edge +7.2% (SECONDARY)
Stake: 1 unit on O3.5, 0.5 units on O2.5
In-play trigger: If 0-0 at 30’ with xG ≥1.2, back O2.5 live at improved odds. Trade-and-exit: If 2 goals by half-time, lay O3.5 at ≤2.0 to lock profit.
West Ham vs Sunderland
Goals Value on the Early Kick-Off
The 12:30 kick-off offers solid value on Over 2.5 Goals.
West Ham’s home record shows 80% of matches landing Over 2.5, though their finishing has been inconsistent (xG under-performance of -0.29). Sunderland away concede 2.01 xGA and have allowed goals in bunches.
Combined xG of 2.93 (West Ham 1.42, Sunderland 1.51) supports goals.
Model vs Market — Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 2.15 70% +10.5%
Over 3.5 Goals 3.80 20% -2.6%
BTTS Yes 1.75 52% -5.1%
FH Over 0.5 1.47 80% +7.8%
The Over 2.5 and First Half Over 0.5 markets both show value. BTTS is too short.
Match Winner Analysis
West Ham 2.45 38.2% -2.6%
Draw 3.40 28.9% -0.5%
Sunderland 2.90 32.9% -1.6%
No match odds value — all within margin of fair price.
Recommendations:
✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 — Edge +10.5%
✅ FH Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.47 — Edge +7.8%
Stake: 1 unit on O2.5, 0.5 units on FH O0.5
In-play trigger: If 0-0 at 25’ and combined shots ≥8, back O2.5 at improved odds. West Ham score 30% of FH goals between 31-45’.
Man City vs Wolves
Avoid Pre-Match — In-Play Only
City at 1.13 is far too short (implied 88.5% vs model 86.1%). The goals markets are similarly compressed.
Model vs Market
Over 2.5 Goals 1.36 -1.5%
Over 3.5 Goals 2.05 +3.9%
BTTS Yes 1.80 -5.6%
FH Over 0.5 1.17 +3.9%
The only pre-match value sits on Over 3.5 and FH Over 0.5, but both are marginal and require small stakes.
City average 3.4 goals scored at home with just 0.6 conceded. Wolves have zero away clean sheets. The goals will likely come, but the market has priced it correctly.
Recommendations:
⚠️ Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.05 — Edge +3.9%, fractional stake only (0.5 units)
In-play trigger: If 0-0 at 20-25’ and City xG ≥0.8, back City -1.5 AH in-play as odds will have drifted from 1.36 to approximately 1.55.
Recommendations Summary
Pre-Match Selections
Fulham vs Brighton Fulham DNB 1.88 +19.1% 1.0 unit
Burnley vs Spurs Over 3.5 Goals 3.56 +18.0% 1.0 unit
West Ham vs Sunderland Over 2.5 Goals 2.15 +10.5% 1.0 unit
Fulham vs Brighton Over 2.5 Goals 1.75 +10.0% 0.75 unit
Burnley vs Spurs Over 2.5 Goals 2.07 +7.2% 0.5 unit
West Ham vs Sunderland FH Over 0.5 1.47 +7.8% 0.5 unit
Matches to Avoid Pre-Match
Fixture Reason Man City vs Wolves All prices marginal or -EV; City too short
In-Play Watchlist
Burnley vs Spurs 0-0 at 30’, xG ≥1.2 Back O2.5 live
West Ham vs Sunderland 0-0 at 25’, shots ≥8 Back O2.5 live
Man City vs Wolves 0-0 at 20’, City xG ≥0.8 Back City -1.5 AH
Key Risks
Fulham edge is model-dependent — The +19.1% figure assumes Brighton’s away form (zero clean sheets, poor xGA) continues. If Brighton defend more conservatively at Craven Cottage, the edge compresses.
Burnley O3.5 requires four goals — That’s a high bar. The 18% edge accounts for this, but variance is significant. Consider this a higher-risk, higher-reward play.
Correlation on Fulham selections — The DNB and O2.5 are partially correlated. If Fulham dominate but win 1-0, the O2.5 loses while DNB wins. Consider this when sizing.
West Ham finishing concerns — Their xG under-performance (-0.29 vs actual) suggests they’re not converting chances. The goals may come from Sunderland’s end instead.
Final Word
Saturday’s fixture list offers exceptional value on Fulham DNB — an edge approaching 20% is rare in Premier League markets. The Burnley O3.5 provides a strong secondary play at attractive odds.
West Ham vs Sunderland gives us a solid goals angle on the early kick-off. City vs Wolves is best left alone pre-match.
Four fixtures, six selections, all positive EV. The in-play triggers are there if conditions materialise.
Bet sensibly and enjoy your Saturday.
All odds quoted were available at time of analysis. Odds movement may have occurred.