Premier League — Sunday, 14 December 2025
All kick-offs 14:00 GMT
Four Premier League fixtures on Sunday afternoon, and the models have found some interesting discrepancies between market pricing and true probabilities.
One match stands out with significant edge. Another offers value from multiple angles. Two should be avoided entirely pre-match — though in-play opportunities may emerge.
Let’s work through each fixture.
The Sunday Fixture Program
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham
xGenius Expected Value Selection
This is where the clearest value sits this weekend.
The market has this as a competitive match. Our model disagrees — quite strongly.
Forest’s home xG of 1.96 reflects their recent excellent form at the City Ground, while Spurs’ away numbers have been concerning. The model gives Forest a 50% win probability against market-implied 43.5%.
Model vs Market
The -0.25 Asian Handicap is the cleanest expression of this edge. You get half your stake back on a draw, full payout on a Forest win.
BTTS Perspective
Interestingly, while the match winner market offers significant value, BTTS does not.
Factor Value BTTS Odds 1.72 Market implied 58.1% Model probability 45% Edge -13.1%
Forest have been tight at home — just 30% BTTS rate in recent matches. They’re creating plenty (1.96 xG) but not conceding much. This points toward a Forest win to nil as a realistic outcome.
Most Likely Final Scores
Scoreline Probability
2-1 11.6%
1-0 10.4%
2-0 9.8%
1-1 8.9%
3-1 7.2%
The model favours low-to-moderate scoring home wins — consistent with the BTTS No lean.
Recommendation:
✅ Forest -0.25 AH @ 2.05 — Edge +14.9%, Sanity Score 8/10
Stake: 1.5 units
In-play trigger: If Spurs score early (0-1) and Forest xG builds to ≥0.8, back Forest +0.25 AH at ≥2.10.
Sunderland vs Newcastle
The Derby with Double Value
The Tyne-Wear derby offers value from two angles — a rarity.
The market has priced Newcastle as heavy favourites, but our model suggests they’re overvalued by roughly 8 percentage points.
Match Winner Value
Sunderland 3.90 27% + 3.7% Draw 3.60 = 29% +4.2%
Newcastle 1.93 44% -15.6%
The value sits with Sunderland and the Draw. Newcastle are poor value at 1.93.
Recommended play: Sunderland DNB (Draw No Bet) @ 1.80 captures the combined Sunderland win + Draw probability (56%) with a safety net.
BTTS Perspective
This is where the derby gets interesting.
BTTS Odds 1.73
Market implied 57.8%
Model probability 64%
Edge +6.2%
Sunderland concede in 75% of their home matches. Newcastle have scored in 6 of their last 10 away fixtures. The empirical data supports goals at both ends.
Most Likely Final Scores
Scoreline Probability
1-1 12.1%
0-1 10.9%
1-2 9.8%
0-0 9.3%
1-0 8.7%
The 1-1 draw leads the distribution — supporting both the Draw value and BTTS thesis.
Recommendations:
✅ BTTS Yes @ 1.73 — Edge +6.2%
✅ Sunderland DNB @ 1.80 — Edge +4.2%
Stake: 1 unit each
In-play trigger: If 0-0 at 30’ with ≥18 total shots, back FH Over 0.5 at ≥1.80.
West Ham vs Aston Villa
Marginal BTTS Value
The match odds offer nothing of interest — market is efficient here. But BTTS suggests an opportunity.
West Ham / Villa Model xG 1.16 / 1.45
Combined xG 2.61
Match Winner Analysis
West Ham 31% 29% +2%
Draw 27% 28.2% -1.2%
Villa 42% 42.8% -0.8%
Margins are tight. No pre-match edge exceeds our target 5% threshold on match odds.
BTTS Perspective
BTTS Odds 1.67
Market implied 59.9%
Model probability 62%
Edge +3.5%
The edge is smaller than our other selections, but it’s there and may reward the patient trader InPlay.
West Ham’s home BTTS rate sits at 50%.
Villa’s away BTTS rate is 75% — they’ve conceded in every away league game this season. West Ham have also failed to keep a clean sheet at home recently.
The conditions favour goals at both ends, even if the combined xG (2.61) isn’t spectacular.
Recommendation:
✅ BTTS Yes @ 1.67 — Edge +3.5%
Stake: 1 unit (lower conviction than other plays)
In-play trigger: Villa score 33% of goals between 31-45’. If 0-0 after 20’, back Villa Over 0.5 FH goal at ≥1.60.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
Avoid
High-profile match, no value evident.
Palace / City Model xG 1.43 / 2.14
Combined xG 3.57
Match Winner Analysis
Palace 21% 25.6% -7.4%
Draw 24% 26.3% -5.8%
City 55% 53.5% +1.9%
City’s edge is below our threshold and carries a Sanity Score of just 6/10. Not worth the risk at short odds but if feeling confident, consider the Asian Handicap markets.
BTTS Analysis
Value BTTS Odds 1.60
Market implied 62.5%
Model probability 55%
Edge -7.5%
Palace keep 60% clean sheets at home. Despite City’s attacking threat (2.02 xG away), Palace’s defensive solidity (1.13 xGA) tempers expectations.
Recommendation:
🛑 Avoid pre-match
In-play trigger: If 0-0 at 25’ with combined xG buildup ≥0.7, back FH Over 0.5 at ≥1.65.
Recommendations Summary
Pre-Match Selections
Matches to Avoid
Crystal Palace vs Man City All 1X2 prices -EV or below threshold
In-Play Watchlist
Forest vs Spurs Spurs score early, Forest xG ≥0.8 Forest +0.25 AH @ ≥2.10
Sunderland vs Newcastle 0-0 at 30’, ≥18 shots FH Over 0.5 @ ≥1.80 West Ham vs Villa 0-0 at 20’ Villa FH goal @ ≥1.60 Palace vs City 0-0 at 25’, xG ≥0.7 FH Over 0.5 @ ≥1.65
Staking Plan
Selection Stake Forest -0.25 AH 1.5% bankroll
Sunderland vs Newcastle BTTS 1% bankroll
Sunderland DNB 1% bankroll
West Ham vs Villa BTTS 1% bankroll In-play triggers (if hit) 0.5% bankroll each
Key Risks
Forest’s edge is model-dependent — If Spurs turn up with improved away intent, the 14.9% edge evaporates quickly.
Derby unpredictability — Sunderland vs Newcastle carries emotional weight that models can’t fully capture.
West Ham vs Villa is marginal — 3.5% edge is within noise range. Consider this a portfolio filler rather than a conviction play.
In-play discipline required — The triggers are specific for a reason. Don’t chase if conditions aren’t met.
Final Word
The Sunday round of fixtures offers one standout value play (Forest), one fixture with multiple angles (Sunderland-Newcastle), one marginal opportunity (West Ham-Villa), and one to leave alone entirely (Palace-City).
Bet sensibly and enjoy your Sunday.
All odds quoted were available at time of analysis. Odds movement may have occurred.