Three fixtures tonight across three different leagues. Three models that all agree: the market is underpricing goals.
Here’s the breakdown.
The Selections
1 Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau Swiss Challenge League BTTS Yes 1.67 64.5% 55.7% +7.7%
2 Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior Eredivisie Over 2.5 Goals 1.80 62.6% 55.6% +12.7%
3 Otelul Galati vs UTA Arad Romanian Liga I Over 2.5 Goals 2.20 67.8% 45.5% +49.2%
All three selections carry positive expected value. All three are backed by xG modelling, Poisson distribution analysis, and form data. Let’s dig into why.
Match 1: Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau - BTTS Yes @ 1.67
Kickoff: 19:15 CET | Swiss Challenge League
Aarau’s away record is notable. 100% of their last five away matches have produced Over 2.5 Goals, averaging 4.0 goals per game. Their away xG sits at 1.49, but they are also leaking at 1.54 xGA. They score and they concede.
Nyonnais at home are vulnerable with a defensive xGA of 1.82. But they do score, particularly late. 40% of their home goals arrive in the 76-90 minute window.
The model gives BTTS a 64.5% probability against a market-implied 55.7%. That is an 8.8% edge with a Confidence rating of 8/10.
Why BTTS over O2.5? The model actually favours both (O2.5 sits at 64.2%), but BTTS carries a slightly stronger edge at identical odds. The league averages 3.3 goals per game, and with both teams showing defensive vulnerability, it is the most efficient way in.
Total xG: 3.30 | Confidence Score: 8/10
Match 2: Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior - Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80
Kickoff: 19:00 CET | Eredivisie
Fortuna Sittard at home have kept zero clean sheets in their last 10. So it is not surprising to see that their xGA is at a sizeable 2.00. They do, however, also create chances (1.46 xG).
Excelsior away are more solid defensively (40% clean sheets), but they still concede at 1.78 xGA and create enough going forward. The combined match xG of 3.23 suggests a game with goals.
Sittard concede 46% of their home goals in the final 30 minutes. Excelsior score 67% of their goals before half-time. There is a natural rhythm here that favours action at both ends throughout the match.
The model puts Over 2.5 at 62.6% against a market-implied 55.6%. That is a clean +12.7% EV.
Total xG: 3.23 | Confidence Score: 8/10
Match 3: Otelul Galati vs UTA Arad - Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20
Kickoff: 15:00 EET | Romanian Liga I
This one has the clearest edge of the three.
The market has this priced at just 45.5% for Over 2.5 Goals. Our models puts it at 67.8%.
Otelul Galati at home are averaging 2.33 goals per game with a home xG of 1.95. They are clinical. UTA Arad away have been scoring freely too (2.0 per game across their last four away trips) but conceding at 1.48 xGA with a nasty habit of leaking late. Four goals conceded in the 71-80 minute window across just four matches.
The Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) confirms the edge: 65.4% median probability for Over 2.5 with a 95% confidence interval of 58.2% to 72.1%. Even at the conservative end, we are well above the market price.
The combined match xG of 3.11 sits well above what the market implies (around 2.7 goals).
Total xG: 3.11 | Confidence Score: 6/10
The Treble and Patent Options
Treble
All three selections combined: 6.61
A 10 pound treble returns 66.13 if all three land.
Patent (7 bets)
A patent covers every combination. Three singles, three doubles, and the treble.
Nyonnais/Aarau BTTS 1.67
Sittard/Excelsior O2.5 1.80
Galati/UTA O2.5 2.20
Doubles
BTTS + Sittard O2.5 3.01 BTTS + Galati
O2.5 3.67 Sittard O2.5 + Galati O2.5 3.96
Treble All three 6.61
At 1 pound per line (7 pound total stake):
All 3 win 22.92 +15.92
Selections 1 and 2 win 6.48 -0.52 Selections
1 and 3 win 7.54 +0.54
Selections 2 and 3 win 7.96 +0.96
Only Selection 1 wins 1.67 -5.33
Only Selection 2 wins 1.80 -5.20
Only Selection 3 wins 2.20 -4.80
The patent structure means you are profitable hitting two of three selections (on selections 1 and 3 or 2 and 3), and close to break-even on selections 1 and 2. It is insurance against near-misses.
Why These Three?
Every selection tonight passes the same filters:
Positive expected value - all three carry model probabilities significantly above market-implied prices.
xG-backed - total match xG above 3.0 in every fixture.
Form-validated - goal trends, timing clusters, and defensive vulnerability all align with the model output.
Data-checked - minimum confidence rating of 6/10. or higher, across the board.
The combined EV across the treble is strong. Individual legs are solid enough to back as singles. The patent gives you good coverage.