Three matches across Europe and South America have passed the model’s Over 2.5 goals threshold today. Combined odds of 5.09 on the treble, with edges ranging from +7.2% to +14.1%.
All three fixtures share a common profile: high xG totals, late-goal patterns, and markets that haven’t fully priced in the scoring expectancy.
Today’s Selections
1. Paris FC vs Olympique de Marseille
Ligue 1 — 16:00 GMT
Over 2.5 Goals 1.67 64.2% +7.2%
This Ligue 1 fixture pits second-tier Paris FC against Ligue 1’s second-placed Marseille sit third in Ligue 1 and have outscored even PSG this season. However, all is not well with De Zerbi announcing he had left Marseille, after crashing out of the Champions League with a 3-0 loss to Club Brugge, while in another press conference saying he could be there for many more years.
Marseille’s strong goal scoring form, with 83% landing Over 2.5 and 83% Over 3.5 would indicate goals on it’s own.
Paris FC further support this scenario, averaging 1.5 goals scored at home yet retain some defensive vulnerability.
Combined xG of 3.19 (Paris FC 1.23, Marseille 1.96) supports the model thesis.
Most likely score-lines:
1-2 (11.8%)
0-2 (10.9%)
1-1 (9.7%)
2. Grasshopper Club Zürich vs FC Lugano
Swiss Super League — 19:30 GMT
Over 2.5 Goals 1.73 62.1% +7.4%
Both sides sit above the Swiss league’s 3.0 goals-per-game average. Grasshopper’s home sample shows 75% Over 2.5, while Lugano away hits 83%.
The late-goal pattern is pronounced here. Both teams show 40% of their goals arriving in the 76-90’ window — 8 goals from 20 in that closing stretch. Markets consistently underestimate this closing pressure.
Grasshopper’s defensive issues (1.75 goals conceded per home game) meet Lugano’s road xG of 1.28. Combined with Grasshopper’s home xGA of 1.75, the model expects a total xG of 3.78.
Most likely score- lines:
1-2 (11.4%)
1-1 (10.9%)
0-2 (9.7%)
Bonus angle: Over 3.5 @ 2.68 shows +12.6% edge for those comfortable with higher variance.
3. CD Cobresal vs CD Huachipato
Chilean Primera División — 21:00 GMT
Over 2.5 Goals 1.76 68.3% +14.1% (factored)
The strongest edge of the day comes from Chile’s opening match-day. Cobresal’s home form is strong — 3.0 goals scored per game with 80% Over 2.5 in their last 10. Their xG of 2.36 is league-leading.
Huachipato are vulnerable away from home. They concede 1.75 per game with 70% of goals against arriving after the 41st minute. Their 81-90’ window is particularly leaky — 4 goals conceded in that stretch across their last 10 away matches.
The timing patterns align: Cobresal score 80% of their goals after 41’, while Huachipato’s defensive structure deteriorates late. Combined xG of 3.45 supports the market.
Most likely score-lines:
2-1 (12.4%)
3-1 (10.8%)
1-1 (9.7%)
Summary Table
Paris FC vs Marseille Over 2.5 1.67 64.2% +7.2% 1 unit
Grasshopper vs Lugano Over 2.5 1.73 62.1% +7.4% 1 unit
Cobresal vs Huachipato Over 2.5 1.76 68.3% +14.1% 1.5 units
Average Edge: +9.6%
Treble Breakdown
Combined Odds: 1.67 × 1.73 × 1.76 = 5.09
The treble requires all three matches to land Over 2.5. With an average model probability of 64.9%, the implied treble probability sits around 27.3% — compared to the market’s 19.6% implied from the 5.09 odds.
Patent Breakdown
A patent bet covers all combinations: 3 singles, 3 doubles, and 1 treble (7 bets total).
Stake: £10 per line = £70 total
Returns by Outcome
Patent Mathematics
Singles:
Paris Over 2.5 @ 1.67 × £10 = £16.70
Grasshopper Over 2.5 @ 1.73 × £10 = £17.30
Cobresal Over 2.5 @ 1.76 × £10 = £17.60
Doubles:
Paris + Grasshopper: 1.67 × 1.73 = 2.89 × £10 = £28.90
Paris + Cobresal: 1.67 × 1.76 = 2.94 × £10 = £29.40
Grasshopper + Cobresal: 1.73 × 1.76 = 3.04 × £10 = £30.40
Treble:
1.67 × 1.73 × 1.76 = 5.09 × £10 = £50.90
Total if all win: £191.20
Key Considerations
Why these selections align:
All three matches share common characteristics — high combined xG (3.19-3.78), pronounced late-goal patterns, and model probabilities materially above market pricing. The average edge of +9.6% across the three suggests systematic underpricing of goal expectancy.
Risk factors:
Paris FC vs Marseille — plenty of chaos in Marseille, unpredictable XI
Grasshopper’s goal sample is small (3 goals in last 4 home games)
Chilean Primera is Matchday 1 — preseason form can be unreliable
All three matches kick off at different times — no live hedging across legs
Staking Guidance
Conservative: Singles only (3.5 units total)
Moderate: Singles + treble (4.5 units total)
Aggressive: Patent (7 units total)
The patent provides insurance — two selections landing still returns close to stake. But the £70 outlay requires comfort with the risk profile.
All odds quoted from Bet365 at time of analysis. Odds movement may have occurred.