Three matches across Italy and Portugal have passed the model’s Over 2.5 goals threshold today. Combined odds of 14.39 on the treble, with edges ranging from +8.1% to +11.4%.
All three fixtures share late-goal patterns and combined xG totals above league averages. For those seeking a more conservative approach, we’ve included an Over 1.5 goals alternative at 3.26 treble odds.
Today’s Selections
1. Torino vs Lecce
Serie A — 11:30 GMT
Over 2.5 Goals 2.35 46% +8.1%
The early kick-off in Turin offers solid value on goals. Both sides have landed Over 2.5 in 60% of their recent home/away samples, with a combined raw average of 3.2 goals per match.
Torino’s home form shows 1.0 scored against 1.8 conceded — they’re leaking goals. Lecce away concede 2.0 per game while scoring 1.4. The xG profile supports the market: Torino 1.54 xG for, 1.39 xGA; Lecce 1.22 xG for, 1.46 xGA. Combined match xG of 2.76.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-0 (8%)
Timing pattern: The 16-30’ and 76-90’ windows are hottest — 5 goals each for both teams in those periods. The 0-15’ window is quiet, making in-play entry after 15’ attractive if still 0-0.
In-play trigger: If 0-0 after 15’ and xG ≥0.4, back Over 2.5 at 2.50+. .
2. Reggiana vs Juve Stabia
Serie B — 14:00 GMT
Over 2.5 Goals 2.55 46% +11.4%
The strongest edge of the day comes from Serie B. Despite Reggiana’s home sample showing just 20% Over 2.5, Juve Stabia’s away profile is explosive — 60% Over 2.5 and 67% BTTS in their last 10 road games.
Juve Stabia average 1.8 scored and 1.83 conceded away from home. Combined with Reggiana’s 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded at home, the model expects 2.63 total xG.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (19%), 1-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 2-1 (11%)
Timing pattern: Both sides score and concede late — 30% of goals arrive after the 60th minute. Juve Stabia’s goals cluster in the 31-45’ and 61-75’ windows.
In-play trigger: If 0-0 at HT (42% of sims) with xG build-up ≥0.9, back Over 1.5 2H around 1.70.
3. Gil Vicente vs Famalicão
Primeira Liga — 15:30 GMT
Over 2.5 Goals 2.40 47% +9.9%
The Portuguese fixture completes today’s card. Gil Vicente’s home xG of 1.74 for and 1.10 against combines with Famalicão’s away profile (1.28 for, 1.38 against) to produce a combined match xG of 3.02 — the highest of today’s selections.
Both sides are “late-grow” teams — 55% of their combined goals arrive after 60’. Famalicão show a pronounced 16-30’ cluster (5 of 13 goals), while Gil Vicente finish strongly in the 76-90’ window.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.2%)
Timing pattern: Both clubs concede 38% of goals inside the final 15 minutes. Market typically shortens Under 2.5 around 70’ — if still 0-1 or 1-1, back Over 2.5 or lay current correct score.
In-play trigger: If 0-0 after 20’ and xG ≥0.6 — acceptable re-entry point
Summary Table
Torino vs Lecce Over 2.5 2.35 46% +8.1% 1 unit
Reggiana vs Juve Stabia Over 2.5 2.55 46% +11.4% 1 unit
Gil Vicente vs Famalicão Over 2.5 2.40 47% +9.9% 1 unit
Average Edge: +9.8%
Treble Breakdown (Over 2.5)
Combined Odds: 2.35 × 2.55 × 2.40 = 14.39
The treble requires all three matches to land Over 2.5. With an average model probability of 46.3%, the implied treble probability sits around 9.9% — compared to the market’s 6.9% implied from the 14.39 odds.
Patent Breakdown (Over 2.5)
A patent bet covers all combinations: 3 singles, 3 doubles, and 1 treble (7 bets total).
Stake: £10 per line = £70 total
Returns by Outcome
All 3 win 7/7 £317.63 +£247.63
Torino + Reggiana win 4/7 £83.42 +£13.42
Torino + Gil Vicente win 4/7 £80.04 +£10.04
Reggiana + Gil Vicente win 4/7 £87.70 +£17.70
Torino only wins 2/7 £23.50 -£46.50
Reggiana only wins 2/7 £25.50 -£44.50
Gil Vicente only wins 2/7 £24.00 -£46.00
None win 0/7 £0.00 -£70.00
Patent Mathematics
Singles:
Torino Over 2.5 @ 2.35 × £10 = £23.50
Reggiana Over 2.5 @ 2.55 × £10 = £25.50
Gil Vicente Over 2.5 @ 2.40 × £10 = £24.00
Doubles:
Torino + Reggiana: 2.35 × 2.55 = 5.99 × £10 = £59.92
Torino + Gil Vicente: 2.35 × 2.40 = 5.64 × £10 = £56.40
Reggiana + Gil Vicente: 2.55 × 2.40 = 6.12 × £10 = £61.20
Treble:
2.35 × 2.55 × 2.40 = 14.39 × £10 = £143.93
Total if all win: £317.63
Conservative Option: Over 1.5 Goals
For those seeking lower variance with higher strike rate, Over 1.5 goals offers a steadier path. The trade-off: reduced odds but significantly higher probability of success.
Over 1.5 Selections
Torino vs Lecce 1.52 ~78%
Reggiana vs Juve Stabia 1.48 ~75%
Gil Vicente vs Famalicão 1.45 ~77%
Over 1.5 Treble
Combined Odds: 1.52 × 1.48 × 1.45 = 3.26
With model probabilities around 75-78% for each leg, the implied treble probability sits around 45% — compared to the market’s 30.7% implied from the 3.26 odds.
Over 1.5 Patent
Stake: £10 per line = £70 total
All 3 win 7/7 £109.36 +£39.36
2 of 3 win 4/7 £51-54 -£16 to -£19
1 of 3 wins 2/7 £14.50-15.20 -£55 to -£56
None win 0/7 £0.00 -£70.00
Over 1.5 Patent Mathematics
Singles:
Torino Over 1.5 @ 1.52 × £10 = £15.20
Reggiana Over 1.5 @ 1.48 × £10 = £14.80
Gil Vicente Over 1.5 @ 1.45 × £10 = £14.50
Doubles:
Torino + Reggiana: 1.52 × 1.48 = 2.25 × £10 = £22.50
Torino + Gil Vicente: 1.52 × 1.45 = 2.20 × £10 = £22.04
Reggiana + Gil Vicente: 1.48 × 1.45 = 2.15 × £10 = £21.46
Treble:
1.52 × 1.48 × 1.45 = 3.26 × £10 = £32.62
Total if all win: £109.36
When to Choose Over 1.5
The Over 1.5 option suits you if:
You prefer higher strike rate over larger individual wins
Your bankroll benefits from consistent small gains
You’re building confidence before scaling up
You want to compound returns across multiple days
The Over 2.5 option suits you if:
You’re comfortable with higher variance
You’re seeking larger individual payouts
Your edge threshold requires +8% minimum
You want maximum return on winning days
Key Considerations
Why these selections align:
All three matches share common characteristics — combined xG above league averages (2.63-3.02), pronounced late-goal patterns, and model probabilities materially above market pricing. The average edge of +9.8% across the three suggests systematic underpricing of goal expectancy.
Risk factors:
Reggiana’s home Over 2.5 rate is just 20% (small sample, but noted)
All three matches kick off at different times — no live hedging across legs
Serie B liquidity can be thinner than top-flight markets
Staking Guidance
Over 2.5 Approach
Conservative: Singles only (3 units total) Moderate: Singles + treble (4 units total) Aggressive: Patent (7 units total)
Over 1.5 Approach
Conservative: Treble only (1 unit) Moderate: Singles + treble (4 units total) Aggressive: Patent (7 units total)
Combined Approach
Some readers prefer splitting exposure:
50% stake on Over 2.5 treble
50% stake on Over 1.5 treble
This balances the higher payout potential of Over 2.5 with the steadier strike rate of Over 1.5.
All odds quoted at time of analysis. Odds movement may have occurred.