Premier League: Best +EV Bets & Trading Plan
Premier League — Gameweek 26 | Tuesday, 10th February 2026
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Four Premier League fixtures tonight. We’ve run each through our Poisson model, cross-referenced with timing data, and identified where the margins might offer modest edges against efficient markets.
Tonight’s first focus: Second-half goal patterns at Goodison Park, where both Everton and Bournemouth show pronounced late-game activity. The structural alignment creates an interesting opportunity this evening.
Everton vs Bournemouth — FREE ANALYSIS
Goodison Park — 19:30 GMT
This fixture stands out for one reason: timing alignment. Both teams exhibit pronounced second-half goal patterns that the market may not fully capture in half-specific pricing.
The Case for Second-Half Goals
Goal Timing Distribution
Everton (Home — Last 10):
First Half: 17% of goals
Second Half: 83% of goals
76-90 mins: 50% of all goal involvement
Bournemouth (Recent Form):
61-75 mins: 29% of goals
76-90 mins: 23% of goals
Combined final 30 mins: 52%
When both teams concentrate their goal activity in the same period, it creates structural edge potential on time-specific markets that general full-match pricing doesn’t capture.
Key Metrics
Everton (Home) Bournemouth (Away)
xG For 1.30 1.35
xG Against 1.53 1.37
Goals Scored PG 1.2 2.17
Goals Conceded PG 1.6 2.33
BTTS Rate 40% 83%
Over 2.5 Rate 20% 67%
Bournemouth games are high-scoring (4.5 total goals/game recently). Everton’s home games are tighter but with higher late patterns. The combination suggests second-half goals are more likely than a standard 50/50 half split would imply.
Model vs Market
SH Over 1.5 2.00 50.0% 54-56% +6-8% ✅ Value
Over 2.5 FT 1.89 52.9% 54-56% +3-5% Fair
BTTS Yes 1.62 61.7% 58-62% ±2% Fair
SH Over 0.5 1.20 83.3% 82-84% Fair —
Why Second Half Over 1.5 stands out: The timing concentration creates a genuine structural factor. Standard models treat goals as evenly distributed; this fixture’s data suggests otherwise.
Poisson Scoreline Distribution
1-1 12.0%
0-1 9.0%
1-2 8.6%
1-0 8.3%
2-1 8.0%
0-2 6.5%
0-0 6.2%
2-0 5.5%
The most likely outcome is 1-1, but multi-goal score-lines dominate the distribution, supporting the goals case.
Value Position
✅ Primary Selection
Second Half Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00
Probability 54-56%
Market Implied 50.0%
Estimated Edge +6-8%
Stake 1.0 unit
Confidence ✅ Medium
Win if 2+ goals scored after half-time. The timing alignment between both teams’ late-goal patterns creates the structural basis for this edge.
Why This Works
Everton’s late vulnerability: 50% of home goals in final 15 minutes
Bournemouth’s sustained threat: 52% of goals in final 30 minutes
Market pricing: Standard half splits don’t capture team-specific timing
Combined SH xG estimate: ~1.75 goals (above the 1.5 threshold)
Markets to Approach with Caution
Everton Win @ 2.40 — Model doesn’t show home edge vs market Bournemouth Win @ 2.95 — Away wins overrated despite good form BTTS No @ 2.45 — Both teams’ profiles suggest goals likely
Everton vs Bournemouth Summary
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Chelsea vs Leeds
Tottenham vs Newcastle
West Ham vs Manchester United
Plus: Complete recommendations table, transparent assessments, and realistic staking guidance.
The following analysis is available to xGenius Premium subscribers.
Chelsea vs Leeds
Stamford Bridge — 19:30 GMT
The market has Chelsea as strong favourites. Our model agrees Chelsea should win more often than not, but the pricing may be slightly too aggressive.
Market Assessment
Chelsea at 1.43 (implied 70%) is steep. Our model puts them at 58-62%, creating a modest gap — but not the massive overlay the raw numbers might suggest.
Why the market is mostly right:
Chelsea’s home xG (1.73) is genuinely strong
Leeds’ away form is poor (20% win rate)
Home advantage at Stamford Bridge is significant
Where slight value exists:
Leeds +1.0 AH offers insurance against narrow Chelsea wins
BTTS has structural support from both teams’ profiles
Key Metrics
Chelsea (Home) Leeds (Away)
xG For 1.73 1.53
xG Against 1.31 1.42
Win Rate (Venue) 75% 20%
BTTS Rate 70% 80%
Model vs Market
Chelsea Win 1.43 69.9% 58-62% Negative ❌ Avoid
Leeds +1.0 AH 1.925 52.0% 56-58% +4-6% ✅ Modest Value
BTTS Yes 1.70 58.8% 60-64% +3-5% Fair
Draw 4.05 24.7% 20-24% Negative ❌ Avoid
Value Positions
✅ Primary Selection
Leeds +1.0 Asian Handicap @ 1.925
Probability 56-58%
Market Implied 52.0%
Estimated Edge +4-6%
Stake 1.0 unit
Confidence ✅ Medium
Win if Leeds win, draw, or lose by exactly 1 (push). This isn’t about Leeds being good — it’s about Chelsea being slightly overpriced.
🔶 Secondary Selection
BTTS Yes @ 1.70
Probability 60-64%
Market Implied 58.8%
Estimated Edge +3-5%
Stake 0.5 units
Confidence Score: 6/10
Flags:
Chelsea home form is genuinely strong
Leeds’ away struggles are real, not just variance
Edge is modest — not a high-conviction play
Tottenham vs Newcastle
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — 19:30 GMT
The raw data suggested massive first-half edges, but on closer inspection, the markets are mostly efficient here.
Market Assessment
Combined first-half xG of ~2.0 is notable, but the FH Over 1.5 market at 2.53 is close to fair.
The real edge, if any, is on FH Over 0.5 — but at 1.34, the margin is slim.
What the data shows:
Spurs score early at home
Newcastle concede 38% of away goals in 31-45 mins
Combined empirical FH goal rate: ~70%
Why the edge is small:
Premier League FH markets are extremely efficient
The 1.34 odds on Over 0.5 already priced ~75% probability
Our model sees 76-78% — marginal at best
Delayed first half entry is the best chance to extract the most value, provided no early goal
Model vs Market
FH Over 0.5 1.34 74.6% 76-78% +3-4% Marginal
FH Over 1.5 2.53 39.5% 40-44% +2-4% Fair
Tottenham Win 2.87 34.8% 38-42% +3-5% Fair
Tottenham DNB 2.10 47.6% 50-54% +3-5% Fair
Value Positions
🔶 Primary Selection
FH Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.34
Probability 76-78%
Market Implied 74.6%
Estimated Edge +3-4%
Stake 0.5 units
Confidence ⚠️ Marginal
Small edge on a short-priced market. Consider drip or late entry.
🔶 Secondary Selection
Tottenham DNB @ 2.10
Probability 50-54%
Market Implied 47.6%
Estimated Edge +3-5%
Stake 0.5 units
In-Play Focus
The better opportunity here may be in-play:
0-0 at 15’ FH Over 0.5 odds drift to ~1.50+ — enter if xG buildup > 0.4
0-0 at HT Second half Over 0.5 becomes high probability
Spurs 1-0 at 60’ Newcastle’s late push creates trade opportunities
Confidence Score: 5/10
Flags:
FH markets are extremely efficient
Edge is marginal at best — reduce stakes accordingly
Match requires monitoring before entry
West Ham vs Manchester United
London Stadium — 20:15 GMT
Market Assessment
West Ham’s 16.6% home win rate from the last 6 games has the market pricing them as underdogs at home against a United side that has been resurgent recently but still with some question markets over their away form.
The reality:
West Ham’s xG (1.48) vs actual goals (0.70) suggests finishing issues, not unlucky variance
United’s away xG (1.90) is genuinely threatening
The 4.06 odds on West Ham already prices in potential recovery
Our view: This is close to fairly priced. The value, if any, is in-play rather than pre-match.
Model vs Market
West Ham Win 4.06 24.6% 26-30% +2-4% Marginal
Man Utd Win 1.75 57.1% 48-52% +4-6% ⚠️ Against
Draw 4.20 23.8% 22-26% Fair
Over 2.5 1.50 66.7% 62-66% Fair
FH Over 1.5 2.17 46.1% 46-50% +2-4% Marginal
Note: The United price looks slightly short, but not enough to confidently back West Ham pre-match. If United start well and the price drifts, our expectation on this game could quickly switch to favouring away.
In-Play Focus (Primary Approach)
This is an in-play fixture. The late-goal patterns create trading opportunities:
Timing Alignment
Man Utd away goals: 52.6% scored in 76-90 mins
West Ham home concessions: 50% in 76-90 mins
This creates a late breakthrough window that’s better exploited in-play than pre-match.
Recommended Approach
0-0 at 60’ High xG buildup Back Over 1.5 if odds > 2.00
1-0 West Ham at 75’ Lead at risk Lay West Ham, back Draw
0-1 United at 70’ United controlling Consider United -1.5 if odds attractive
1-1 at 75’ Late goal likely Back Over 2.5 or United Next Goal
Pre-Match Positions (Low Conviction)
🔶 Secondary Only
FH Over 1.5 @ 2.17
Probability 46-50%
Market Implied 46.1%
Estimated Edge +2-4%
Stake 0.5 units
Confidence ⚠️ Marginal
West Ham’s matches often involve an early goal and high FH xG (2.08 combined) offer slight support, but this is thin.
Confidence Score: 4/10
Flags:
West Ham finishing issues are clear
United’s season away form is inconsistent
Market is fairly efficient
Recent form / Carrick appointment adds unquantifiable dynamic to the stats
Recommendation: In-play focus, minimal pre-match exposure
Tuesday Recommendations Summary
Everton vs Bournemouth SH Over 1.5 2.00 54-56% +6-8% 1.0u ✅ Med
Everton vs Bournemouth Over 2.5 FT 1.89 54-56% +3-5% 0.5u Fair
Chelsea vs Leeds Leeds +1.0 AH 1.925 56-58% +4-6% 1.0u ✅ Med
Chelsea vs Leeds BTTS Yes 1.70 60-64% +3-5% 0.5u Fair
Spurs vs Newcastle FH Over 0.5 1.34 76-78% +3-4% 0.5u ⚠️ Marg
Spurs vs Newcastle Tottenham DNB 2.10 50-54% +3-5% 0.5u ⚠️ Marg
West Ham vs Man Utd In-Play Focus
Staking Summary
Total Pre-Match Stake 4.0 units
Average Estimated Edge +4.5%
Best Single Edge +6-8% (SH Over 1.5 Everton/Bournemouth)
In-Play Reserve 1.0-2.0 units (Primarily West Ham fixture)
Enjoy some rare Midweek Premier League action.
Be lucky and bet responsibly - xGenius Team
All odds quoted from Bet365/Pinnacle at time of analysis. Edges are estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.