Premier League: Best +EV Bets & Trading Plan
Sunday 22 February 2026 | Premier League Gameweek 27
Markets are tight on Sunday
Slim pickings today. Four Premier League fixtures, and the models only give us two worth backing, pre-match at least.
We ran every angle — xG projections, Poisson scoreline distributions, Asian Handicap analysis, first-half timing clusters, and in-play setups — across all four fixtures. Two made the cut with genuine +EV positions. Two are interesting to watch but don’t justify pre-match stakes.
Let’s get into it — starting with the big one.
🏟️ Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal | 16:30
The North London Derby.
The key stats:
Tottenham at home over their last six: 1.33 goals scored, 1.50 conceded per match. BTTS has landed in 83% of home games. Only one clean sheet in six. Their xG profile tells the same story — 1.69 generated, 1.55 conceded. This is a team that creates chances but leaks them at the other end.
Arsenal away over their last six: 2.83 goals scored, 1.00 conceded. That’s an elite attacking output. But the concession rate — one per game — means they’re not shutting the door. BTTS has landed in roughly 60% of their away fixtures.
Our models suggest:
Combined xG sits around 3.20 on the empirical model, 2.49 on the conservative fixture model. That’s a big gap, and it’s why Over 2.5 Goals is too assumption-sensitive to back pre-match (it’s either +26.5% EV or -16.0% depending which model you trust).
But BTTS Yes survives both scenarios. The bivariate Poisson model with score correlation gives us 61.3% probability. The market prices it at 51.8% fair (after removing the overround). That’s a 9.5% probability edge.
The timing tells us more:
Arsenal start fast away from home — 22% of their away goals come in the first 15 minutes. Spurs are vulnerable late in the first half, conceding three goals in the 31-45’ window across their last ten. Then Arsenal sustain the threat throughout the second half with goals spread evenly across every 15-minute block from 46’ onwards.
Spurs’ own goal threat peaks at 61-75’ (three goals in that window), which means if this is 1-0 Arsenal at half-time, the equaliser probability spikes significantly in the third quarter.
✅ Recommendation: BTTS Yes @ 1.86
EV: +14.0%
Confidence Score: 7/10
Stake: 0.75% bankroll
Confidence: High
The edge is strong. It holds under both conservative and empirical xG assumptions. Arsenal’s away attacking output virtually guarantees their end; Spurs’ home xG of 1.69 and 83% BTTS rate provide the other half.
🎯 In-Play: If 0-0 at 20’ and combined xG is building past 0.8, FH Over 1.5 Goals should drift to 3.50+ — that’s a live entry opportunity if the shot tempo supports it. Both teams average first goals at or before 15 minutes, so a goalless opening 20 would represent a value drift.
⚠️ Watch For: Arsenal’s away defensive record (1.00 conceded/game) is strong, so Spurs may need a second-half window to find their goal. The 61-75’ period is their best scoring window — patience may be required.
That’s our showcase pick for the Sunday slate. Below: the full card with two more positions, combination bets, and the complete in-play watchlist.
Crystal Palace vs Wolverhampton Wanderers | 14:00
Two interesting positions available.
