Premier League +EV Bets and Value Trading Plan | GW29 Sunday
Premier League xG analysis and +EV Betting
Premier League Sunday | 15 March 2026
Four fixtures on the Sunday card. Three carry pre-match value across the goals markets; the fourth is an in-play fixture to return to at half-time.
Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur | 16:30
Liverpool’s home xG average over the last ten is 2.73 per match, with just 1.04 conceded. Tottenham have found the net in every first half of their last ten away fixtures, but their away record across that run reads two wins, two draws and six losses.
Combined FT xG: 3.39.
The xGenius model places Liverpool’s win probability at 60.4%, against a market price of 1.28 implying 78.1%. Worth knowing, but there is no stake to take from it.
Markets
BTTS Yes 1.77 64.3% +13.7%
FT Under 2.5 2.96 35.0% +3.5%
BTTS Yes @1.77. Both sides score consistently in these conditions. Our model gives 64.3% — nearly eight points above the market’s implied 56.5%. Tottenham have scored in six of their last ten away matches.
FT Under 2.5 @2.96. At first glance this sits in tension with BTTS. It is worth explaining how they can both land: scorelines of 1-1, 2-0, 0-1 or 1-0 all settle the Under 2.5, and a 1-1 settles both. The practical approach is to back Under 2.5 as the primary pre-match position. BTTS remains live and can still be backed later in the game — if a goal goes in early and the match is tracking towards exactly one goal each, both outcomes remain achievable. The window is narrow, but these are two separate bets and the scenarios do overlap. Our model puts the Under 2.5 at 35.0% against the market’s implied 33.8%.
Confidence: 6/10
In-play plan
Liverpool’s second-half profile is strong. Nine SH goals in their last ten home matches, SH xG of 1.19, and four goals scored in the 76-90’ window.
HT Score Market Entry:
0-0 or 1-0 Liverpool SH Over 1.5 Liverpool’s FH xG at or above expected (≥0.9)
1-0 Liverpool SH BTTS Tottenham’s late-goal trend (3 goals after 76’) remains active
0-0 SH Over 2.5 Only if Liverpool’s FH xG was dominant throughout
Watch for Liverpool generating five or more shots on target before half-time. That level of output correlates with their 1.6 average SH goals in recent home matches.
