Premier League Preview: Best +EV Bets & Trading Plan
Saturday 28 February 2026 - EV Betting and InPlay Trading Analysis
Five fixtures analysed. Four made the cut. One’s on the house.
Gameweek 28 delivers an interesting set of matches — The early kick-off is thin on value (more on that below), but from 15:00 onwards the opportunities builds nicely.
Leeds United vs Manchester City | Saturday 17:30
This is the tea-time game and it’s where our focus starts. City travel to Elland Road as heavy favourites — 1.61 on the 1X2 — but the underlying numbers suggest that Pep may not get it all his own way.
📊 Match Profile
Leeds (H) Man City (A)
xG For 1.21 1.63
xG Against 1.46 1.10
Goals/Game (recent) 2.75 scored, 1.50 conceded 1.25 scored, 2.00 conceded
Away/Home record (last 4) 40% W, 20% D 25% W, 25% D, 50% L
Over 2.5 rate 75% (home) 75% (away)
BTTS rate 50% 75%
The adjusted model gives us λ 1.15 (Leeds) and λ 1.55 (City), producing a total match xG of 2.70 goals. The Poisson distribution puts Over 2.5 at 66% model probability against the market’s 60.6% implied at 1.65.
That’s a clean +8.9% EV.
✅ Recommendation: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65 EV: +8.9% | 95% CI: +2.1% to +15.7% Stake: 1.0% bankroll
Confidence: Moderate-High (7/10)
The case is straightforward. Three of City’s last four away games have gone over this line. Leeds’ home matches average 3.0 total goals despite their relatively modest xG creation — they’re open at the back (1.46 xGA at home) and teams come at them. City generate 14.3 shots per away game with 5.5 on target. The chances will come.
The timing data adds colour. City show a pronounced early-goal tendency — 42% of their away goals arrive in the first 30 minutes. Leeds are more dangerous in the 16-30 and 61-75 minute windows. Both teams are active in the final 15 minutes (Leeds concede 40% of home goals after the 61st minute; City concede 62.5% of away goals in the same period). The game should open up as it progresses.
The ensemble model (70% xG-Poisson, 30% form-based) agrees at 66%. The pre-match statistical model pushes even higher at 66%.
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🎯 In-Play: If 0-0 at 60 minutes, Over 2.5 odds should drift to ~3.00+. That’s an enhanced entry point given both teams’ late-game goal profiles. Leeds’ inability to hold leads (4 late goals conceded in 4 home games) and City’s final-15-minute push create a genuine structural window.
Continue reading for three more selections, a combination bet, and the full in-play watch-list for Saturday’s card.
