Sunday brings four Premier League games, and we are focusing on two in particular with 2pm kick-offs: Brighton’s trip to Stamford Bridge and Fulham at the Stadium of Light. Chelsea opened their campaign with a 3-2 win at Craven Cottage, their £117m record signing Morgan Rogers scoring on his league debut, while Brighton put four past Aston Villa inside 31 minutes. Sunderland and Fulham are both still looking for their first points of the season.
With one round played, the numbers behind today’s positions still lean on the closing weeks of last season. One of our two positions sits in the goals markets, with the other on the Asian Handicap.
Saturday Results
Saturday’s card returned two winners from three positions. Everton +0.5 at 1.80 landed as James Tarkowski’s late equaliser earned a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth, and the Under 2.5 at 2.42 won as Tottenham were beaten 2-0 at home by Newcastle. The Tottenham win at 2.25 was a losing position in the same game, although we did target it with reduced stakes (0.25%)
Chelsea v Brighton (2pm UK)
The market makes Chelsea strong favourites at Stamford Bridge: 1.85 the hosts, 3.75 the draw and 3.80 Brighton. Both sides arrive off winning starts, and the opening weekend ran heavy on goals with five in Chelsea’s game at Fulham and four in Brighton’s win over Villa.
Full-time xG comes in at 1.24 for Chelsea against 1.17 for Brighton, a 2.40 combined total that sits below what those opening scorelines suggest. None of Chelsea’s last ten at Stamford Bridge have gone past 2.5 goals, while Brighton’s away sample runs livelier with seven of their last ten on the road clearing the same line. It all points towards the goals markets rather than the match odds this afternoon.
