Saturday, 25 January 2026
The models have been busy overnight, and today’s fixture list has delivered something worth your attention.
Three matches across English and Spanish football are showing meaningful edge on the Both Teams To Score market — the kind of model-market divergence that doesn’t appear every day. We’re talking double-digit expected value on all three selections.
One match features teams who both score over 70% of their goals in the second half. Another has a late-goal cluster where 38% of all goals arrive in the final 15 minutes. The third involves a side yet to keep an away clean sheet this season.
The numbers align. The timing patterns support the thesis. And the treble odds make this an interesting portfolio play.
Let’s get into it.
Match 1: Cambridge United vs Tranmere Rovers
League: League Two
Kick-off: 15:00
The Setup
Cambridge and Tranmere present an interesting profile — both teams show a pronounced second-half bias in their goal timing, with 70% of recent goals arriving after the break.
The late-goal angle is particularly striking: both sides have scored 38% of their goals in the 76-90’ window.
Goal Frequency Trends (Last 10)
BTTS Rate Cambridge (H) 1.2 pg 0.4 pg 20%
Tranmere (A) 1.1 pg 1.04 pg 40%
The raw BTTS percentages look modest, but the xG tells a different story.
xG Analysis
Metric Value Cambridge home xG 1.41 Tranmere away xG 1.38 Combined match xG 2.79 Model BTTS probability 60.1%
The Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 runs) shows both teams finding the net in 60.1% of outcomes — substantially higher than the market’s implied 51.3%.
Timing Clusters
0-15’ 0
16-30’ 2
31-45’ 1
46-60’ 2
61-75’ 2
76-90’ 5 (38%)
The late-goal cluster is pronounced. If you’re watching live and it’s still 0-0 or 1-0 at 70 minutes, don’t switch off.
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 11.9%
0-1 10.9%
1-2 9.8%
0-2 7.9%
2-1 7.2%
Four of the top five score-lines are BTTS outcomes.
Model vs Market
Recommendation:
✅ BTTS Yes @ 1.95 — Edge +17.1%, Confidence Score 7/10
In-play note: If 0-0 at 70’ with xG buildup ≥1.0, consider backing “Next Goal” or late BTTS in-play. The 76-90’ cluster is hard to ignore.
Match 2: QPR vs Wrexham
League: Championship
Kick-off: 15:00
The Setup
QPR at home are a goals machine — 3.5 goals per game with 100% of recent matches landing Over 2.5. Wrexham bring their own firepower with 2.5 goals per game on the road.
The BTTS profile is strong from both sides, and the late-goal timing align well.
Goal Frequency Trends (Last 10)
QPR’s home form is exceptional. They’ve hit Over 2.5 in every recent home match.
xG Analysis
QPR home xG for 1.52
QPR home xGA 0.87
Wrexham away xG for 0.87
Wrexham away xGA 1.74
Combined match xG 2.39 Model BTTS probability 66%
The model gives BTTS a 66% chance — that’s a significant gap from the market’s 52.6%.
Timing Clusters
QPR: 4 goals in 31-45’, 4 goals in 76-90’ — late-zone hot Wrexham: 5 goals in 71-90’ — second-half finishers
Both teams show pronounced late-game scoring patterns. The 76-90’ window is active for both sides.
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 QPR 14.2%
1-1 11.8%
3-1 QPR 10.4%
2-0 QPR 9.7%
2-2 7.6%
The modal outcome is 2-1 QPR — a BTTS scoreline. Three of the top five outcomes see both teams score.
Model vs Market
Recommendation:
✅ BTTS Yes @ 1.90 — Edge +13.4%, Confidence Score 7/10
In-play note: If 0-0 or 1-0 at 70’, the late-goal trade is live. Both sides have 40%+ of goals arriving in the final 15 minutes.
Match 3: CD Leganés vs Real Sociedad II
League: Segunda División (Spain)
Kick-off: 15:15
The Setup
This Segunda División clash offers a different profile — Leganés are leaky at the back (1.6 goals conceded per game) while Real Sociedad II play an open, end-to-end style averaging 3.6 goals per match.
The key stat: Sociedad II have yet to keep an away clean sheet this season. That’s 0 from 10. They will concede.
Goal Frequency Trends (Last 10)
Leganés 2.0 pg 0.4 pg 1.6 pg
Sociedad II 3.6 pg 2.0 pg 1.6 pg
Combined avg 2.8 pg — —
Sociedad II’s open style creates chances at both ends. Their 3.6 goals per game average tells you everything about how they approach matches.
xG Analysis
Leganés home xG for 1.53
Leganés home xGA 1.14
Sociedad II away xG for 1.38
Sociedad II away xGA 1.53
Combined match xG 2.91
Model BTTS probability 62%
Combined xG of 2.91 with both teams showing attacking intent. The model gives BTTS 62% probability.
Timing Clusters
0-15’ 4
16-30’ 3
31-45’ 4
46-60’ 4
61-75’ 3
76-90’ 10 (36%)
Another late-goal cluster. Over a third of all goals in this fixture profile arrive in the final 15 minutes.
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 12.4%
2-1 11.8%
1-2 10.1%
2-2 8.9%
1-0 7.6%
Four of the top five score-lines are BTTS outcomes. The 1-1 and 2-1 lines account for nearly a quarter of all outcomes.
Model vs Market
Recommendation:
✅ BTTS Yes @ 1.95 — Edge +10.7%, Sanity Score 7/10
Key flag: Sociedad II have 0 away clean sheets in 10 matches. They will concede. The question is whether Leganés can find the net — their home xG of 1.53 suggests they can.
Summary: Three BTTS Selections
Cambridge vs Tranmere BTTS Yes 1.95 60.1% +17.1%
QPR vs Wrexham BTTS Yes 1.90 66% +13.4%
Leganés vs Sociedad II BTTS Yes 1.95 62% +10.7%
All three selections show double-digit expected value. The model-market gaps are genuine, supported by timing clusters and xG data.
The Treble
For those who like to combine selections, here’s the accumulator:
Cambridge vs Tranmere BTTS 1.95
QPR vs Wrexham BTTS 1.90
Leganés vs Sociedad II BTTS 1.95
Combined Treble Odds 7.22
The treble offers attractive odds, but remember — all three must land. If you prefer some insurance, consider the patent bet below.
The Patent Bet
A patent covers all possible combinations of your three selections: 3 singles, 3 doubles, and 1 treble — 7 bets in total. You get a return if just one selection wins, with returns scaling up as more selections land.
The 7 Bets
Singles (3 bets):
1 Cambridge vs Tranmere BTTS 1.95
2 QPR vs Wrexham BTTS 1.90
3 Leganés vs Sociedad II BTTS 1.95
Doubles (3 bets):
4 Cambridge + QPR 3.71
5 Cambridge + Leganés 3.80
6 QPR + Leganés 3.71
Treble (1 bet):
Bet Selections Odds 7 All three 7.22
Example Returns (£10 per line = £70 total stake)
Scenario 1: All 3 selections win
(£10 × 1.95) + (£10 × 1.90) + (£10 × 1.95)
£58.00 Doubles (£10 × 3.71) + (£10 × 3.80) + (£10 × 3.71) £112.20
Treble £10 × 7.22 £72.20
Total Returns £242.40 Profit £242.40 - £70 £172.40
Scenario 2: 2 of 3 selections win (Cambridge & QPR win, Leganés loses)
Singles (£10 × 1.95) + (£10 × 1.90) + £0
£38.50 Doubles (£10 × 3.71) + £0 + £0 £37.10
Treble £0 £0
Total Returns £75.60 Profit £75.60 - £70 £5.60
Patent vs Treble: Which to choose?
Treble Higher potential return (7.22x), lower stake required All or nothing — one loss kills the bet
Patent Returns from 1 winner, profit possible from 2 winners
Higher total stake (7x), lower maximum return
Our view: If you’re confident in all three selections, the treble offers better value. If you want insurance against one selection failing, the patent gives you a safety net — you’ll make a small profit even with just two winners landing.
Key Risks
Late-goal dependency — Two of the three matches show pronounced 76-90’ timing clusters.
Leganés scoring concerns — They’ve found the net in only 4 of 10 recent matches. The xG suggests they can score, but conversion has been poor.
Correlation — All three selections are BTTS. If the wider market has a “low-scoring Saturday,” all three could fail together.
Sociedad II away form — While they concede regularly (good for BTTS), they also create chances. If Leganés can’t capitalise on their defensive frailty, the selection loses.
Final Word
Three BTTS selections, all showing double-digit expected value. The timing patterns align — late goals are a theme across all three fixtures. The xG supports the thesis.
Singles, treble, or patent — choose your approach based on your risk appetite. The edge is there regardless of how you structure it.
Good luck, and bet responsibly.
All odds quoted were available at time of analysis. Odds movement may have occurred.