Sunday BTTS Value Report
Sunday, 26 January 2026
Three fixtures across English and French football present opportunities in the Both Teams To Score market this Sunday.
The model has identified positive expected value on all three selections, though the edges vary considerably. One fixture shows substantial model-market divergence; another offers moderate value with strong supporting data; the third provides a smaller edge but completes a workable accumulator.
The analysis covers timing patterns, xG projections, and model probabilities. Treble and patent options are detailed below for those seeking combined approaches.
Match 1: Portsmouth vs Southampton
League: Championship
Kick-off: 12:00
Overview
The south coast derby presents the strongest BTTS edge of the day. The model shows a significant gap between market pricing and true probability.
Portsmouth’s home record shows consistent goal involvement — 2.2 goals scored per game with an xG of 1.72. Southampton’s away form tells a different story: 3.4 goals conceded per game, though they contribute 1.2 goals of their own.
Goal Frequency Trends (Last 10)
Portsmouth (H) 2.2 pg 1.0 pg 1.72 1.39
Southampton (A) 1.2 pg 3.4 pg 1.56 1.85
Combined xG of 3.28 supports an expectation of goals at both ends.
Timing Analysis
0-15’ 3 2
16-30’ 3 2
31-45’ 2 3
46-60’ 2 1
61-75’ 2 2
76-90’ 0 1
Both sides show early activity — 10 combined goals in the 0-30’ window across their last 10 matches. Southampton concede heavily in the 31-45’ and 61-75’ periods.
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 11.4%
1-1 10.8%
2-2 9.7%
1-2 8.9%
3-1 7.6%
Four of the top five outcomes are BTTS scorelines. The 2-1 and 1-1 lines account for over 22% of simulated outcomes.
Model vs Market
BTTS Yes 1.70 58.8% 74% +25.9%
Confidence Score: 8/10
Recommendation:
✅ BTTS Yes @ 1.70 — Edge +25.9%
In-play note: If 0-0 after 20’ and xG build-up ≥0.6, consider FH Over 1.5 at ≥2.40. Southampton concede 33% of their away goals in the 61-75’ window.
Match 2: Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
League: Premier League
Kick-off: 14:00
Overview
Newcastle’s home record this season has been prolific — 3.86 goals per game with an xG of 2.29. Villa’s away form is more measured, though they contribute an average of 1.57 goals per game on the road.
The BTTS case rests on Villa’s attacking contribution combined with Newcastle’s tendency to concede at least one goal in 57% of home matches.
Goal Frequency Trends (Last 10)
Newcastle (H) 3.86 pg 1.40 pg 57%
Villa (A) 1.57 pg 1.29 pg 71%
Villa’s away BTTS rate of 71% is notable. They find the net consistently, even when losing.
Timing Analysis
Home / Away
0-15’ 5 scored / 0 conceded 2 scored / 2 conceded
16-30’ 2 scored / 3 conceded 2 scored / 1 conceded
31-45’ 2 scored / 1 conceded 3 scored / 3 conceded
46-60’ 2 scored / 3 conceded 4 scored / 2 conceded
61-75’ 3 scored / 3 conceded 2 scored / 2 conceded
76-90’ 8 scored / 1 conceded 3 scored / 4 conceded
Newcastle’s late-goal pattern is pronounced — 8 of 21 home goals arrive in the final 15 minutes. Villa’s second-half output drops to 0.33 goals per match, with 71% of their away goals arriving before half-time.
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 11.4%
1-1 10.9%
3-1 9.7%
2-0 8.3%
3-2 6.8%
The 2-1, 1-1, and 3-2 score-lines are all BTTS outcomes, accounting for 29% of simulated results.
Model vs Market
BTTS Yes 1.57 63.7% 71.7% +12.7%
Confidence Score: 7/10
Recommendation:
✅ BTTS Yes @ 1.57 — Edge +12.7%
In-play note: If Villa lead at 60’, consider laying Villa or backing Over 1.5 second-half goals. Newcastle’s 76-90’ burst combined with Villa’s second-half drop-off increases the probability of a late equaliser.
Match 3: Stade Brestois vs Toulouse
League: Ligue 1
Kick-off: 16:15
Overview
This Ligue 1 fixture offers a smaller edge than the English selections but contributes to a workable accumulator.
Brest average 2.25 goals per game at home with 50% BTTS. Toulouse’s away record is more entertaining — 2.8 goals per game with 80% BTTS.
Goal Frequency Trends (Last 10)
BTTS Rate Brest (H) 2.25 pg 50% 50%
Toulouse (A) 2.8 pg 60% 80%
Toulouse’s 80% away BTTS rate provides the primary case for this selection.
Timing Analysis
Brest: Peak windows at 31-45’ (3 goals) and 76-90’ (3 goals).
Toulouse: Fast starters — 5 goals in 0-15’, 6 in 16-30’. Late drama with 8 goals in 76-90’.
Both sides show activity at opposite ends of each half, creating multiple windows for goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 12.8%
2-1 11.4%
1-2 10.1%
2-2 9.3%
1-0 8.7%
Four of the top five score-lines are BTTS outcomes.
Model vs Market
BTTS Yes 1.85 54.1% 57.4% +3.3%
Confidence Score: 7/10
Recommendation:
✅ BTTS Yes @ 1.85 — Edge +3.3%
This selection carries the smallest edge of the three. Its inclusion is justified by Toulouse’s strong away BTTS record and the accumulator value it provides.
In-play note: Both teams score 25% of their goals in the 76-90’ window. If the match is level after 75’, late drama is probable.
Summary: Three BTTS Selections
Portsmouth vs Southampton BTTS Yes 1.70
Newcastle vs Aston Villa BTTS Yes 1.57
Brest vs Toulouse BTTS Yes 1.85
The Portsmouth vs Southampton selection offers the strongest edge. Newcastle vs Villa provides solid value with supporting timing data. Brest vs Toulouse rounds out the treble with a modest but positive expected value.
The Treble
Combined Treble Odds 4.94
Returns (£10 Stake)
Stake: £10
Returns: £49.37
Profit: £39.37
The treble requires all three selections to land. One failure results in total loss of stake.
The Patent Bet
A patent covers all combinations of three selections: 3 singles, 3 doubles, and 1 treble — seven bets in total. This structure provides returns from a single winner, with profits scaling as more selections land.
The Seven Bets (£10 per line = £70 total stake)
Singles:
1 Portsmouth vs Southampton BTTS 1.70
2 Newcastle vs Aston Villa BTTS 1.57
3 Brest vs Toulouse BTTS 1.85
Doubles:
4 Portsmouth + Newcastle 2.67
5 Portsmouth + Brest 3.15
6 Newcastle + Brest 2.90
Treble:
All three 4.94
Returns by Outcome
All 3 Selections Win:
Bet Type Calculation Returns
Singles (£10 × 1.70) + (£10 × 1.57) + (£10 × 1.85) £51.20
Doubles (£10 × 2.67) + (£10 × 3.15) + (£10 × 2.90) £87.20
Treble £10 × 4.94 £49.40
Total Returns £187.80 Profit £187.80 − £70 +£117.80
2 of 3 Selections Win:
Returns vary depending on which selections land. The table below shows the range:
Portsmouth + Newcastle £32.70 £26.70 £59.40 −£10.60
Portsmouth + Brest £35.50 £31.50 £67.00 −£3.00
Newcastle + Brest £34.20 £29.00 £63.20 −£6.80
With two winners, the patent typically returns between £59 and £67 against a £70 stake — a small loss rather than total wipeout.
1 of 3 Selections Wins:
Portsmouth only £17.00 £17.00 −£53.00
Newcastle only £15.70 £15.70 −£54.30
Brest only £18.50 £18.50 −£51.50
A single winner returns between £15.70 and £18.50, reducing the loss compared to a failed treble.
No Selections Win:
| Total Returns | £0 | | Loss | −£70 |
Treble vs Patent: Comparison
The patent requires a larger outlay but provides partial protection against one selection failing. The treble offers better returns relative to stake but carries higher variance.
Key Considerations
Edge distribution is uneven — Portsmouth vs Southampton carries the bulk of the expected value (+25.9%). The treble’s profitability depends heavily on this selection landing.
Brest vs Toulouse is marginal — The +3.3% edge is modest. Its inclusion improves treble odds but introduces additional variance.
Villa’s second-half pattern — Their away output drops significantly after half-time (0.33 goals per match). If Villa score early, the BTTS selection is effectively won; if they don’t score before 60’, the probability decreases.
Timing clusters support the thesis — All three fixtures show goal activity in multiple 15-minute windows, reducing the likelihood of 0-0 or one-sided score-lines.
Final Summary
Three BTTS selections with combined treble odds of 4.94. The edge is concentrated in the Portsmouth vs Southampton fixture, with Newcastle vs Villa providing moderate value and Brest vs Toulouse completing the accumulator.
Singles, treble, or patent — select based on risk tolerance and stake preference.
All odds quoted were available at time of analysis. Prices may have moved.
No worries. Some very good content over the weekend. Keep up the good work. All the best.
In-play note: If 0-0 after 20’ and xG build-up ≥0.6, consider FH Over 1.5 at ≥2.40. Southampton concede 33% of their away goals in the 61-75’ window. This from the Southampton game.
FH over 1.5 goals pre-match is currently 3.0 so this is very poor advice.