Premier League — Sunday, 1 February 2026
Four Premier League fixtures on Sunday, and the models have identified significant discrepancies between market pricing and true probabilities.
One match stands out with exceptional edge — over +20% on the goals market. The late kick-off between Tottenham and Manchester City offers value on the underdog handicap. Two more fixtures provide targeted opportunities on Over 2.5 goals.
Let’s start with the headline match.
Aston Villa vs Brentford
Villa Park — 14:00 GMT
This is where Sunday’s clearest value sits. The model-market divergence here is substantial — over 20% on multiple markets.
Villa’s home form has been emphatic. Across their last 10 home matches, they average 2.0 goals scored against 1.25 conceded, with 70% landing Over 2.5 and 75% BTTS. Their xG profile (1.62 created, 1.40 conceded) supports an open, attacking game.
Brentford travel with decent away numbers — 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded — but their defensive structure faces a stern test. The model’s expected goals total of 3.60 sits comfortably above the 2.5 line.
Model vs Market
Over 2.5 Goals 1.81 55.2% 70.5% +22.3%
BTTS Yes 1.66 60.2% 69.0% +14.6%
Villa -0.5 AH 2.03 49.3% 56.3% +9.7%
FH Over 1.5 2.70 37.0% 46.0% +24.2%
The Over 2.5 edge is exceptional. Combined xG of 3.60 (Villa 2.00, Brentford 1.60) creates a high-scoring expectation that the market hasn’t fully priced.
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 Villa 11.4%
1-1 10.9%
3-1 Villa 9.8%
2-2 8.7%
1-0 Villa 7.6%
Villa win score-lines dominate the distribution, with 2-1 and 3-1 accounting for over 21% combined.
Timing Patterns
The 31-60’ window is where this match could ignite:
Brentford concede 40% of goals in the 31-60’ period
Villa score 40% of their goals in the same window
Both sides show late-goal patterns: 20-25% in the 76-90’ window
Recommendations:
✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.81 — Edge +22.3%, Confidence Score 8/10 Stake: 1.5 units (1.5% bankroll)
✅ BTTS Yes @ 1.66 — Edge +14.6% Stake: 1 unit
✅ FH Over 1.5 @ 2.70 — Edge +24.2% (higher variance) Stake: 1 unit
Want analysis on the remaining three fixtures?
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Man United vs Fulham — Late-goal patterns align, two modest +EV positions identified
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace — Over 2.5 @ 2.06 shows +8.8% edge
Tottenham vs Man City — Spurs +0.75 AH @ 1.95 offers +14.7% edge on the underdog
Plus full recommendations table, in-play triggers, and staking guidance.
Man United vs Fulham
Old Trafford — 14:00 GMT
Both sides are late-goal heavy. United score 75% of their home goals after half-time; Fulham manage 83% in the second half away from home. The 76-90’ window accounts for 6 goals each across their last 10 matches.
The model expects 3.1 total goals (United 1.67, Fulham 1.22 xG).
Model vs Market
Over 2.5 Goals 1.68 59.5% 62.3% +4.7%
BTTS Yes 1.73 57.8% 60.1% +4.0%
The edges are modest but positive. United’s home Over 2.5 rate of just 20% in recent games creates caution, but the xG regression supports the model thesis.
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 11.8%
2-1 United 11.2%
1-0 United 9.4%
2-0 United 8.7%
Recommendations:
✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.68 — Edge +4.7% Stake: 1 unit
✅ BTTS Yes @ 1.73 — Edge +4.0% Stake: 0.75 unit
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace
City Ground — 14:00 GMT
Palace’s defensive fragility meets Forest’s steady home form. Palace concede 2.2 goals per game with 45% arriving in the final 15 minutes — a pronounced late-goal vulnerability.
The model expects 2.84 total goals (Forest 1.45 xG, Palace 1.70 xGA).
Model vs Market
Over 2.5 Goals 2.06 48.5% 52.8% +8.8%
BTTS Yes 1.80 55.6% 58.4% +5.1%
The Over 2.5 price at 2.06 offers the best value of the 14:00 kick-offs outside Villa Park.
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 19.4%
2-1 14.8%
1-2 12.1%
2-2 9.7%
Draw and low-margin outcomes dominate, but the combined 52.8% Over 2.5 probability still offers edge at 2.06.
Recommendations:
✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.06 — Edge +8.8%, Confidence Score 7/10 Stake: 1 unit
✅ BTTS Yes @ 1.80 — Edge +5.1% Stake: 0.75 unit
Tottenham vs Manchester City
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — 16:30 GMT
The headline late kick-off offers value on Spurs. City are rightful favourites at 1.75, but the market has over-priced their handicap lines.
Model vs Market (Asian Handicap)
Spurs +0.75 58.9% 1.95 1.70 +14.7%
Spurs +1.25 71.4% 1.50 1.40 +7.1%
Over 2.5 Goals 66.6% 1.66 1.50 +6.4%
The +0.75 line is the standout. Spurs need to avoid losing by 2+ for a full payout, or lose by exactly 1 for a half-stake return.
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2 City 10.9%
0-2 City 9.7%
1-1 9.5%
0-1 City 8.8%
1-3 City 7.4%
City win score-lines dominate, but the concentration on 1-goal and 2-goal margins supports the Spurs handicap thesis.
Timing Patterns
Both sides show pronounced late-goal patterns:
76-90’: Spurs 4 goals, City 3 goals (combined 30%+ of output)
31-45’: 5 goals (strongest first-half quarter)
61-75’: Just 1 goal (lowest period)
Recommendations:
✅ Tottenham +0.75 AH @ 1.95 — Edge +14.7%, Confidence Score 7/10 Stake: 1.5 units
✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.66 — Edge +6.4% Stake: 1 unit
⚠️ Flag: Monitor Pep rotation risk — no confirmed team news at time of analysis.
Sunday Recommendations Summary
Villa vs Brentford Over 2.5 1.81 +22.3% 1.5u 🎯 High
Villa vs Brentford BTTS Yes 1.66 +14.6% 1.0u 🎯 High
Villa vs Brentford FH Over 1.5 2.70 +24.2% 1.0u 🎯 High
Spurs vs Man City Spurs +0.75 AH 1.95 +14.7% 1.5u 🎯 High
Forest vs Palace Over 2.5 2.06 +8.8% 1.0u ✅ Medium
Spurs vs Man City Over 2.5 1.66 +6.4% 1.0u ✅ Medium
Forest vs Palace BTTS Yes 1.80 +5.1% 0.75u ✅ Medium
United vs Fulham Over 2.5 1.68 +4.7% 1.0u ✅ Medium
United vs Fulham BTTS Yes 1.73 +4.0% 0.75u ⚠️ Marginal
Villa vs Brentford Villa -0.5 AH 2.03 +9.7% 1.0u ✅ Medium
Total Stake: 11.5 units Average Edge: +11.4%
Final Word
Sunday’s fixture list is headlined by exceptional value at Villa Park — multiple markets showing double-digit edge on a high-xG encounter. The Spurs vs City late kick-off offers the best underdog handicap value of the weekend.
The 14:00 kick-offs at Old Trafford and the City Ground provide supporting angles, though edges are more modest. Late-goal patterns feature prominently across all four fixtures — monitor the 76-90’ window for in-play opportunities.
Bet sensibly and enjoy your Sunday.
All odds quoted from Bet365/Pinnacle at time of analysis. Odds movement may have occurred.