Sunderland vs Liverpool: Full +EV Analysis & Trading Plan
Premier League | Wednesday, 11th February 2026 | 20:15 GMT
Sunderland vs Liverpool
Stadium of Light — 20:15 GMT
The later kick-off this evening is the match we have put under full spotlight.
What’s inside this analysis:
Full 1X2 and Asian Handicap breakdown
Poisson scoreline distribution
Goal timing patterns and in-play triggers
Trade-and-exit strategies
Market assumptions and flags
This analysis is available to xGenius Premium subscribers.
Sunderland are unbeaten at home this season with the fourth best home record in the league — just 0.75 goals conceded per game at the Stadium of Light. Liverpool’s away form is moderate (4W-3D-5L), but their clinical finishing (1.60 goals vs 1.20 xG) suggests potential regression.
The market prices Liverpool at 1.77 (implied 53.4%), but our model sees closer to 47.5%. That 6% gap creates opportunity — even in efficient Premier League markets.
Key Metrics
Sunderland (Home) Liverpool (Away)
Last 10 Form 2W-5D-3L (20% win) 6W-4D-0L (60% win)
Home/Away PPG 2.00 (unbeaten) 2.20
xG For 1.40 1.20
xG Against 1.27 0.60
Goals Scored PG 1.50 1.60
Goals Conceded PG 0.50 0.60
Clean Sheet % 50% (home) 60% (overall)
Key Insight: Liverpool’s goals (1.60) significantly exceed their xG (1.20) — a 33% over-performance that typically regresses. Sunderland’s defence at home is considerably better than their xGA suggests (0.50 actual vs 1.27 xGA).
Model vs Market: 1X2
Sunderland Win 4.35 21.7% 28.5% +4-5%* ⚠️ Risky
Draw 3.80 24.9% 24.0% -1% Avoid
Liverpool Win 1.77 53.4% 47.5% -6% ❌ Overvalued
Sunderland Win edge heavily down-weighted from raw model for PL market efficiency
Interpretation: Liverpool are overpriced as favourites. The value sits with Sunderland coverage — but the 1X2 market carries too much variance. Asian Handicap is cleaner.
Asian Handicap Deep Dive
This is where the opportunity crystallises.
Sunderland +0.5 54.5% 1.83 2.20 +6-8% ✅ Value
Sunderland +0.75 58.0% 1.72 1.92 +4-5% ✅ Fair
Sunderland +1.0 62.5% 1.60 1.63 +1-2% Marginal
Liverpool -0.5 45.5% 2.20 1.74 -10% ❌ Avoid
Liverpool -1.0 37.5% 2.67 2.38 -6% ❌ Avoid
Note: Raw model edges down-weighted ~20% for Premier League market efficiency (94-97%)
The market gives Liverpool a 57.5% chance of winning by any margin. Our model sees 45.5%. Even after efficiency adjustments, that gap persists.
Win conditions: Sunderland win or draw. You’re essentially betting on Liverpool NOT winning, which is reasonable based on the comparable form and statistics.
Goals Market Analysis
Under 2.5 1.95 49.0% 55-58% +5-7% ✅ Value
BTTS No 2.00 46.5% 52-54% +4-5% ✅ Fair
Over 2.5 1.87 51.0% 42-45% -8% ❌ Avoid
BTTS Yes 1.74 53.5% 46-48% -5% ❌ Avoid
Why Under 2.5 works:
Combined expected goals: 2.33. That’s below the 2.5 threshold. Sunderland’s home defensive record (0.50 conceded) meets Liverpool’s potential regression (1.60 goals from 1.20 xG is unsustainable).
Poisson Scoreline Distribution
1-1 13.2% 13.2%
1-0 11.6% 24.8%
0-1 11.1% 35.9%
0-0 9.7% 45.6%
2-1 7.5% 53.1%
1-2 7.2% 60.3%
2-0 6.9% 67.2%
0-2 6.3% 73.5%
Most Likely Outcomes: 1-1 draw or either team winning 1-0. Low-scoring results dominate.
Liverpool Win by 1 Goal: ~21% — creates significant push risk on Liverpool -1.0 AH.
Sunderland Win/Draw Combined: 54.5% — directly supports the +0.5 AH selection.
Goal Timing Analysis
Sunderland (Home)
0-15 1 0
16-30 1 0
31-45 2 ⚡ 1
46-60 0 0
61-75 2 ⚡ 1
76-90 0 0
Pattern: Sunderland are dangerous in the 31-45 and 61-75 windows. Crucially, they’ve conceded ZERO goals in the final 15 minutes at home.
Liverpool (Away)
0-15 2 0
16-30 0 0
31-45 4 🔥 1
46-60 1 1
61-75 0 0
76-90 2 ⚡ 2 (40%)
Pattern: Liverpool’s away goals cluster in 31-45 (36%) and 76-90 (18%). They concede 40% of away goals in the final 15 minutes — a vulnerability.
First Half Split:
Sunderland: 66% of home goals in first half
Liverpool: 55% of away goals in first half
Value Positions
✅ Primary Selection
Sunderland +0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.20
Model Probability 54.5%
Market Implied 45.5%
Estimated Edge +6-8%
Stake 1.0 unit
Confidence ✅ Medium
Win on Sunderland win or draw. Lose only if Liverpool win by any margin.
Why This Works:
Liverpool @ 1.77 is overpriced — model sees 47.5% win probability
Sunderland unbeaten at home with 0.50 goals conceded per game
Liverpool’s xG over-performance (1.60 vs 1.20) suggests regression
Premier League home underdogs often undervalued in later-season fixtures
✅ Secondary Selection
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.95
Model Probability 55-58%
Market Implied 49.0%
Estimated Edge +5-7%
Stake 1.0 unit
Confidence ✅ Medium
Win if 2 or fewer total goals.
⚠️ Assumption Flag: This selection is sensitive to Liverpool’s finishing. If they maintain their 1.60 conversion rate (vs 1.20 xG), the edge disappears. We’re betting on regression.
Fair Selection
BTTS No @ 2.00
Model Probability 52-54%
Market Implied 46.5%
Estimated Edge +4-5%
Stake 0.5 units
Confidence Fair
Supports the defensive thesis. Sunderland’s home clean sheet rate (50%) and Liverpool’s away defensive solidity make this viable.
Trade-and-Exit Strategy
Pre-Match Entry
Back Sunderland +0.5 @ 2.20 (1.0 unit)
Scenario Management
If Sunderland score first (25% probability):
+0.5 AH odds compress to ~1.20-1.30
Action: Lay at 1.25 for guaranteed 70% profit OR let run for full win
Exit timing: Immediately after goal confirmation
If Liverpool score first (35% probability):
+0.5 AH odds drift to ~3.50-4.00
Action: HOLD position — you still win on draw
Sunderland score 50% of home goals in 61-75 window
Consider: Add to position at 4.00+ if Liverpool lead at 60’
If 0-0 at 60’:
+0.5 AH odds should be ~1.80-1.90
Action: Consider laying at 1.85 for small profit OR hold
Liverpool’s late-game threat (40% of away goals 76-90) creates risk
But Sunderland generally keep things tight from 76-90 at home
In-Play Strategy: Liverpool Late Goal
Setup
Liverpool score 40% of away goals in the 76-90 window.
Trigger
Entry at 70-75’ if:
Score is 0-0 or 1-0 to Sunderland
Liverpool xG > 1.5 but no conversion
Liverpool Match Odds available at 2.50+
Execution
Market: Back Liverpool Win or Over 1.5 Goals (if 0-0)
Stake: 0.5 units
Target: 40-50% profit on goal
Exit
Goal scored: Lay immediately for profit
85’ and still waiting: Exit at 50% loss to preserve bankroll
Risk
Sunderland keep it tight from 76-90 at home (just 9 goals conceded all season). Liverpool’s late threat remains notable.
Markets to Avoid
Liverpool -0.5 AH 1.74 Model shows 45.5% cover; market implies 57.5%
Liverpool -1.0 AH 2.38 37.5% cover rate; poor value
Over 2.5 1.87 42-45% model vs 51% market — negative EV
BTTS Yes 1.74 46-48% model vs 53% market — negative EV
Liverpool Win 1.77 Overpriced favourite
Tonight’s Recommendations
Pre-match Sunderland +0.5 AH 2.20 +6-8% 1.0u
Pre-match Under 2.5 1.95 +5-7% 1.0u
Pre-match BTTS No 2.00 +4-5% 0.5u
InPlay: Liverpool Late Goal Variable N/A 0.5u In-play (70’+)
Total Pre-Match Stake: 2.5 units
Average Edge: +5.5%
Final Summary
Primary: Sunderland +0.5 AH @ 2.20 (+6-8% EV, 1.0 unit)
Secondary: Under 2.5 @ 1.95 (+5-7% EV, 1.0 unit)
Supporting: BTTS No @ 2.00 (+4-5% EV, 0.5 units)
In-Play: Liverpool late goal trade at 70’+ if conditions met
The market has overpriced Liverpool. Sunderland’s home defensive record creates a structural opportunity on the handicap and unders markets. Position accordingly.
Enjoy your Wednesday. As always, bet smartly and responsibly - xGenius
Analysis powered by xGenius Poisson models with Bayesian priors. All edges are estimates against efficient Premier League markets. Edges have been adjusted for market efficiency.