There’s no shortage of tools claiming to give you an edge in football betting. Most of them hide behind vague claims and cherry-picked results. So when one publishes a full, transparent breakdown of every recommendation it’s ever made — the wins and the losses — it’s worth paying attention.
Gecko Edge is an AI-powered football betting assistant that covers 150+ leagues. It uses xG modelling, Poisson distributions, and expected value calculations to surface betting opportunities across pre-match and in-play markets.
Recently, they analysed 8,439 of their own recommendations over a six-week period and published the results in a four-part series.
The headline: +398 points profit on flat 1-point stakes across 66 competitions, with both pre-match and in-play datasets independently profitable.
But the more useful findings are in the detail.
What Were The Key Learnings?
With any data-sample, even one as large as this one, profit will concentrate in certain areas, while others my under-perform due to variance an other factors.
However, with a substantial enough amount of data, certain trends will stand out that deserve closer attention.
Their analysis found, for example, that Under 2.5 Goals recommendations returned +50.07% ROI at a 73.8% strike rate — far and away the strongest pre-match market.
First Half Over 0.5 Goals hit consistently, generated ongoing steady profit that could be compounded and leveraged further InPlay.
The one we found most interesting were the Asian Handicap markets. They provided a good volume of profitable bets at an eye-catching +7.90% ROI.
The xGenius team are big fans of the Asian Handicap markets as value is often easier to find the 1X2 market, while allowing a combination of risk-spreading and leverage.
On the losing side, Match Result Away recommendations performed very poorly - but there were only 56 bets.
The AI also appeared to struggle with long-shots, delivering a loss on markets priced at 4.00 or higher in the pre-match markets. This is not uncommon in most forms of football betting data analysis. (Again, the sample was also relatively small).
We find this kind of transparency rare and equally refreshing to see.
Most analysis you read will focus on the positives and skip over any inconvenient negatives.
How Confident Can You Be With AI Betting?
One impressive feature that Gecko Edge produces is something they have called a Sanity Score — in other words, a confidence rating for each recommendation.
It factors in a number of factors including data accuracy, odds freshness, modelling accuracy a number of hidden metrics.
To fully understand this, it is important to understand what Gecko Edge actually does.
It is position as an AI Betting Assistant - in plain terms, it provides probabilities, not tips.
So if you ask it to analyse something, if there is a recommendation (probability) to be made, it will show it.
However, the stronger the data and trends (Sanity Score) allows the AI to generate more deeper hypothesise, which in turn to a higher confidence (Sanity) rating.
The higher the confidence, the more profitable. Makes sense, right.
And their data supports this - the higher the confidence level, the greater the returns:
The In-Play Power Time Segment
Without giving away too much of their research (it really is worth reading in full), of the 5,465 in-play recommendations, a key15 minute entry point was clearly identified.
Simply focusing your analysis in this timezone would significantly improve most peoples betting success.
Want To Learn More?
Whether you use Gecko Edge or not, the research highlights principles that apply to any systematic bettor: profit concentrates in specific areas, timing matters more than most people realise, and knowing what to skip is as important as knowing what to back.
If you do want to try it, Gecko Edge offers a free trial with no card details required.
The four-part Performance Analysis Series is available on their blog and makes for genuinely useful reading regardless. You can read Part 1 here