Serie A — Matchweek 16
Saturday, 13 December 2025 — 14:00 GMT
Two sides in the bottom half meet at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, and the data suggests this could be more interesting than the table positions imply.
Venezia’s home form has been quietly solid defensively, while Monza continue to struggle on the road. The xG models point to goals — and the market appears to be underpricing the likelihood.
Let’s break it down.
The Form Picture
Looking at the last 10 matches for each side in their respective home/away splits:
Venezia’s defensive record at home stands out — conceding just 0.1 goals per game across their last 10 home matches is remarkable at this level. However, that metric alone doesn’t tell the full story. Their attacking output of 1.2 goals per game, combined with Monza’s leaky away defence (1.2 conceded per game), creates the conditions for a home-favoured contest.
Monza’s away clean sheet rate of just 17% suggests they’ll likely concede. The question is whether they can find the net themselves.
Timing Analysis: When the Goals Arrive
This is where it gets interesting for in-play traders.
