Serie A — Matchweek 16
Saturday, 13 December 2025 — 14:00 GMT
Two sides in the bottom half meet at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, and the data suggests this could be more interesting than the table positions imply.
Venezia’s home form has been quietly solid defensively, while Monza continue to struggle on the road. The xG models point to goals — and the market appears to be underpricing the likelihood.
Let’s break it down.
The Form Picture
Looking at the last 10 matches for each side in their respective home/away splits:
Venezia’s defensive record at home stands out — conceding just 0.1 goals per game across their last 10 home matches is remarkable at this level. However, that metric alone doesn’t tell the full story. Their attacking output of 1.2 goals per game, combined with Monza’s leaky away defence (1.2 conceded per game), creates the conditions for a home-favoured contest.
Monza’s away clean sheet rate of just 17% suggests they’ll likely concede. The question is whether they can find the net themselves.
Timing Analysis: When the Goals Arrive
This is where it gets interesting for in-play traders.
Venezia’s goal distribution:
First half: 0.50 goals per game
Second half: 0.70 goals per game
61-75’ window: 40% of all goals scored
Monza’s goal distribution:
First half: 0.50 goals per game
Second half: 0.30 goals per game
Venezia are a second-half side. Nine of their twelve goals this season have come after half-time, with a particular spike in the 61-75 minute window.
In-play note: If this match is level at 60 minutes, there’s a strong case for backing a second-half goal. Venezia’s late-game pattern is consistent enough to warrant attention.
15-Minute Timing Clusters (2025/26)
Interval Venezia Monza
0-15’ 3 1
16-30’ 2 2
31-45’ 5 4
46-60’ 5 3
61-75’ 4 2
76-90’ 1 1
Both sides show activity in the 31-45’ and 46-60’ windows. If you’re looking at first-half goals, the final 15 minutes before the break looks the most likely window.
xG Model Projections
Our xG-based model produces the following projections for this fixture:
Metric Value Venezia xG 1.59 Monza xG 1.43 Combined xG 3.02
A combined xG of 3.02 initially points toward goals, but raw xG doesn’t account for stylistic factors. Venezia’s home defensive discipline has suppressed scoring in recent matches, so we’ve adjusted our model outputs accordingly.
Running this through 10,000 Poisson simulations and applying adjustments for recent form:
Model Over 2.5 probability: 48% (adjusted from raw xG)
Model BTTS probability: 57.9%
The BTTS probability holds up better because it doesn’t require volume — just one goal from each side. Given Monza’s 17% away clean sheet rate and Venezia’s ability to create chances, both teams finding the net is the more reliable thesis.
Now let’s compare to market pricing.
Value Assessment
BTTS — Yes (Primary Selection)
Factor Value Model probability 57.9% Fair odds 1.73 Best market odds 1.91 Edge +10.4%
This is where the clearest value sits.
The case is straightforward: Monza’s away clean sheet rate of just 17% makes them highly likely to concede. Meanwhile, Venezia’s defensive solidity at home (0.1 goals conceded per game) doesn’t translate to shutouts when they’re the ones pushing forward — they’ve created enough chances to suggest Monza’s poor defence will be tested.
The key factor is Monza’s need to attack. Sitting 19th in Serie A and desperate for points, they can’t afford to park the bus. That leaves gaps at the back for Venezia to exploit, while their own attacking forays (however limited at 0.8 goals per game away) should find at least one opportunity against a side that will commit men forward.
At 1.91, the market implies roughly 52% probability. Our model has this at 57.9% — that’s a meaningful edge.
Over 2.5 Goals (Secondary Selection)
Factor Value Model probability 48% Fair odds 2.08 Best market odds 2.20 (Bet365) Edge +5.6%
The raw xG numbers (combined 3.02) initially suggested stronger Over 2.5 value, but we’ve adjusted downward to account for Venezia’s defensive home record. Only 30% of their home matches have cleared 2.5 goals in the last 10.
There’s still marginal value at 2.20 — the market implies 45.5% while we have it at 48% — but this comes with more variance. The BTTS thesis doesn’t require three goals; it only needs one from each side. Over 2.5 needs that extra goal to land, which makes it the riskier of the two selections.
Consider this a secondary play if you’re spreading liability risk, or leave it alone if you prefer cleaner edges.
Venezia -0.25 Asian Handicap
Factor Value Model probability 58% Market odds 1.775 Edge +3.0%
The quarter-ball handicap gives you half your stake back if Venezia win by exactly one goal, and full payout on a two-goal margin or more. At 1.775 with a 58% model probability, this represents marginal value but requires Venezia to win outright — a higher bar than simply backing both teams to score.
Correct Score Distribution
For those trading correct score markets, here’s the Poisson-derived probability distribution for the most likely scorelines:
Scoreline Probability Fair Odds
The model favours low-to-moderate scoring home wins. 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 account for over 33% of simulated outcomes combined.
If you’re building a correct score portfolio, the 2-1 home win at fair odds of 9.2 is worth checking against market prices.
Recommendations Summary
Primary value: BTTS Yes at 1.91 represents the clearest edge in this fixture. Monza’s dire away clean sheet rate (17%) combined with their need to push forward creates the conditions for goals at both ends. This selection doesn’t require a high-scoring game — just one goal from each side.
Secondary value: Over 2.5 at 2.20 offers marginal value, but we’ve tempered expectations given Venezia’s defensive home record. If you’re taking BTTS, adding Over 2.5 creates correlation risk — you’re essentially doubling down on the same thesis.
In-play watch: If 0-0 at 60 minutes, consider backing a goal before 75’ — Venezia’s timing patterns strongly favour this window.
Key Risks
Venezia’s defensive form is real — If their home defensive structure holds, this could easily be a 1-0 or 0-0 affair.
Monza’s away impotence — 0.8 goals per game away from home is poor. They might simply fail to show up offensively.
Final Word
The data points to value on goals in this fixture. A combined xG north of 3.0, significant miss-pricing on Over 2.5, and complementary timing patterns for in-play opportunities make this one worth attention.
As always, stake according to your bankroll management rules — even strong edges lose individual bets. The goal is to execute +EV decisions consistently, not to win every selection.
Bet and trade sensibly.
All odds quoted were available at time of analysis. Odds movement may have occurred.