World Cup 2026, Day 4 +EV Bets
World Cup Betting: Day 4 Begins With Germany begin against Curaçao
Day 4 brings a 39-year age gap between managers, a World Cup record, as Julian Nagelsmann’s Germany face Dick Advocaat’s Curaçao.
Four fixtures make up the day, alongside Sweden v Tunisia, Ivory Coast v Ecuador and Netherlands v Japan.
First, the numbers from Day 3.
Day 3 in numbers
Morocco out-performed Brazil on xG, 1.52 to 1.23, in a 1-1 draw.
Two saves from Alisson kept Brazil unbeaten in their World Cup opening matches since 1934.
Morocco are unbeaten in their last five World Cup group-stage matches, two wins and three draws.
Switzerland’s 26 shots were their most in a World Cup match on record. It was the most by a side that failed to win since Germany’s 2-1 defeat to Japan in 2022.
Scotland recorded their fifth World Cup win, and first since beating Sweden 2-1 in 1990.
Sweden v Tunisia
Sweden have lost just two of their 12 World Cup openers, with five wins and five draws, and are unbeaten in their last four, one win and three draws.
This is Sweden’s 13th World Cup and their first since 2018, when they reached the quarter-finals.
Sweden have progressed beyond the group stage at each of their last four World Cups.
In qualifying this time, Sweden finished bottom of their group, behind Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovenia, and reached the play-off path only through their UEFA Nations League ranking of 34.
Tunisia are at their seventh World Cup, and third in a row, having topped their qualifying group with nine wins and one draw.
Tunisia have won only three of their 18 World Cup matches, a 16.7% win rate.
Ivory Coast v Ecuador
Ecuador lost just twice in 18 qualifiers and conceded only five goals.
Ivory Coast won eight of their ten qualifiers without conceding a goal, and were the top scorers in CAF qualifying with 25.
This is Ivory Coast’s first appearance since 2014, and only their fourth overall.
Enner Valencia has scored six of Ecuador’s last seven World Cup goals.
Netherlands v Japan
The Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 16 World Cup group matches, twelve wins and four draws.
The Netherlands last lost an opening match in 1938.
They have the third-best World Cup win rate at 54.5%, behind Brazil (66.7%) and Germany (60.7%).
Japan have won their opening match at each of the last two World Cups, beating both Germany and Spain in 2022.
Germany v Curaçao
This is Germany’s 21st World Cup appearance. Only Brazil, with 23, have more.
Germany, four-time champions, have lost their opening match at each of the last two World Cups, and have not kept a clean sheet since the 2014 final.
There is a 39-year, 299-day age gap between the managers: Julian Nagelsmann (38y 326d) faces the oldest manager in World Cup history, Dick Advocaat (78y 260d).
Curaçao scored the most goals (28) and recorded the top xG (22.9) in CONCACAF qualifying.
Junior Bacuna created the most chances from open play (20) and won the most free-kicks (25) in qualifying.
Inside today’s Daily Brief
The trends above are the free preview. The positions are in today’s Daily Brief, sent before kick-off:
• Every +EV position for the day, with entry prices and points staking
• The pre-match and in-play bets across today’s fixtures
• The in-play triggers for each position
• A daily acca whenever the fixtures justify one
>>> Get the World Cup Daily Brief
Bet responsibly, and always with an edge on your side.
Tom, xGenius