What 1,000 Bets Has Told Us About Automated Betting
Which Strategies Work Best For Automated Betting?
This is the third post in our automated betting series. Click below to read our earlier posts:
> Our 14 Strategy Automated Betting Portfolio
> How To Build An Automated Betting Portfolio
After 1,022 bets, the IPS Portfolio sits at +55.46 points profit with a 5.4% ROI.
Yet it has ben anything but a smooth ride with degrees of variance between the strategies.
Some are performing really well, others ae being hit with variance while a few have question marks against them.
Here’s the full breakdown.
Performance Overview
Eight strategies in profit. Six in loss.
Let’s break it down further.
Automated Betting: What Is Working
IPS Late Goal +2: +24.46 pts (99 bets, 24.7% ROI)
The portfolio’s standout performer. This strategy backs Over 4.5 goals late in matches where specific statistical conditions are met.
Why it’s working: Higher goal thresholds offer better prices. A late 4.5 entry at odds of 3.50-5.00 only needs to hit 25-30% of the time to profit. When the filter identifies matches with genuine late-game attacking potential, the strike rate has exceeded expectations.
The catch: The ROI and profit is great but it can go through long losing sequences.
IPS 0-0 Home & IPStt 0-0 +2.5: +15.97 and +14.12 pts
Both 0-0 specialist strategies are doing very well—but with tiny sample sizes (13 and 11 bets respectively).
Why it might be working: The 0-0 scoreline at specific game states creates miss-pricing. Markets see “no goals” and price conservatively. The strategies see “attacking dominance without conversion” and find value.
The catch: Sample sizes is too small to draw conclusions. We will reassess at 50+ bets.
IPS Home HT: +10.55 pts (57 bets, 18.5% ROI)
Backing home teams at half-time when first-half statistics favour them.
Why it’s working: Home advantage is key, while the markets may underweight first-half dominance when the scoreline is close.
The catch: 57 bets is encouraging The strategy logic is sound, but sustained 18% ROI would be exceptional. We’ll review again at 100-150 bets.
The Grinders
IPS O2.5 & IPS 1-0 0-1: +5.63 and +3.53 pts
Solid contributions from workmanlike strategies. Both have meaningful sample sizes (71 and 106 bets) and positive returns, though ROI is modest.
Assessment: These look like genuine edges—small but consistent. The kind of strategies that the portfolio could actually build its corner stone around.
IPS FHG: +1.20 pts (142 bets, 0.8% ROI)
The highest-volume strategy in the portfolio. Its been up a lot, down a bit and roughly break-even.
Assessment: Technically positive, but 0.8% ROI over 142 bets is within variance. This strategy is on watch. If it doesn’t improve over the next 200 bets, we may pause it or refine the strategy rules.
The Under-performers (so far)
IPS Late Goal: -6.22 pts (221 bets, -2.8% ROI)
Here’s the paradox: Late Goal +2 is the best performer, but standard Late Goal is the worst. Yet it was comfortably in profit a few days prior to doing this analysis.
What’s happening: We may be entering slightly too early, the Late Goal +2 indicates the inplay filters are solid but we’re perhaps not getting the price we need to make this viable.
Action: We’re comparing entry conditions between Late Goal and Late Goal +2 to understand why results diverge so dramatically.
IPS LTD: -2.29 pts (159 bets, -1.4% ROI)
Lay The Draw has 159 bets—our second-highest volume—and is slightly negative.
Assessment: Not catastrophic, but not encouraging. Like some of the other ‘under’ performers, it has had periods in profit. Needs monitoring and potential tweaking.
The Other Losers: O1.5 v3, IPSt 0-0, 1-0 0-1 +2.5
All three are moderately negative with varying sample sizes. None are bleeding badly, but none are showing promise either.
Assessment: There are other similar strategies within the portfolio so they can easily replaced or tweaked. We’ll review after 100+ bets each.
Next Steps
The portfolio remains in profit, and we’re learning. Over the next 2-4 weeks, we’ll:
Monitor the 0-0 strategies for sample size growth
Compare Late Goal vs Late Goal +2 entry conditions
Evaluate FHG and LTD for potential pausing
Continue documenting results publicly
We’ll publish the next update once we hit 1,500-2,000 bets, or sooner if something significant changes.
This is Part 3 of our IPS Portfolio series. Subscribe to follow the journey—including the inevitable drawdowns.